The verdicts in connection with the storming of the Capitol have dealt a serious blow to the right-wing extremist militias in the USA. But have the groups really been permanently weakened?
The leaders of the Proud Boys and Oath Keepers are behind bars. These two right-wing extremist militias, which have become known since the storming of the US Capitol, are virtually leaderless. Of course, this would weaken them, analyzes Jon Lewis, an extremism researcher at George Washington University.
The arrest, indictment and conviction of Stuart Rhodes of the Oath Keepers and Enrique Tarrio and the other leaders of the Proud Boys would have a huge impact on both groups. However, due to their structures, the consequences are different.
Oath Keepers without leadership
The 18-year prison sentence of its founder Stewart Rhodes has greater consequences for the Oath Keepers. With them, Rhodes basically had the sole say. He held the reins. Since he was arrested, the Oath Keepers have almost disappeared from the scene.
The “Proud Boys” are also unlikely to be able to organize themselves at the national level at the moment like they did during the storming of the Capitol on January 6, 2021, said Lewis ARD-Interview. But at the local level there are men who can now play a larger role there. And with that the threat also shifts.
Danger more at a local level
The threat is not that there will be mass mobilization after the 2024 presidential election on January 6, 2025. The threat today arises at the local level. It is directed against people who are not as protected and are therefore easier targets for the “Proud Boys”.
The “Proud Boys” were the tip of the spear in the storming of the Capitol, says Lewis. It is unclear how many official members who have also taken the oath the militia has. Lewis estimates there are about 500 nationwide, spread across chapters of various sizes in different US states.
Long prison sentences: “Victory for democracy”
According to the extremism expert, the prison sentences of between 15 and 22 years for its boss Enrique Tarrio and the three senior members Ethan Nordean, Joseph Biggs and Zachary Rehl are a victory for democracy and the rule of law. And the high penalties would certainly have a deterrent effect. Lewis speaks of a “new reality.” This meant that many people no longer thought they could behave as uninhibitedly as they did on January 6th.
Things also remained quiet around former President Donald Trump’s appearances in court. Feared violent protests in New York, Miami, Washington or Atlanta failed to materialize. Jon Lewis has no doubts that the “Proud Boys” will continue to support Trump. “I think the ‘Proud Boys’ have realized that the ex-president is their best chance to regain relevance.”
Trump avoided distancing himself
During the 2020 presidential election campaign, Trump refused to clearly condemn the right-wing extremist “Proud Boys”. In a TV debate with Joe Biden, Trump said: “Proud Boys – stand back and stand by.” Days later, he said he didn’t even know who the Proud Boys were. But they celebrated Trump and felt they were on the rise. Now, three years later, they are significantly weakened.
But the extremism researcher from George Washington University warns: The fundamental threat from domestic terrorism has not diminished since January 6, 2021. It has long gone beyond individual groups such as the “Proud Boys”, Oath Keepers or other right-wing radical organizations.
No stringent strategy against extremists
White racists or anti-government extremists are often individuals, some of whom also band together online. What is worrying is that the US government does not seem to have a strategy against it, said Lewis.
The Democrats on the US Senate Homeland Security Committee criticized in a 100-page report in June that the US secret services were still not sufficiently keeping an eye on the threat of terrorism in their own country.
According to Jon Lewis, there is no doubt that right-wing extremism, particularly white supremacist extremism, currently represents the deadliest and most widespread domestic terrorism threat in the United States.