As of: 05/24/2022 6:56 p.m
The coup d’état in Libya failed, but the struggle for power has only been postponed. The opponents need not fear international pressure – and that also has something to do with the Ukraine war.
In the end, it was nothing more than a failed coup d’etat: the politician Fatih al-Baschagha traveled overnight from eastern Libya to the west, to the capital Tripoli. With the support of a powerful militia, the “Eighth Brigade”, he wanted to replace the internationally recognized Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah last week.
Chaotic times followed the fall of dictator Muammar al-Gaddafi in 2011. Among other things, there was a civil war in which General Khalifa Haftar stormed Tripoli in 2019: the warlord wanted to take the capital with the help of the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and mercenaries from the Russian “Group Wagner”, among others, and kill the then Prime Minister Fayez al -Disempower Sarraj.
A year later, Haftar had to give up his plan, also because Turkey jumped to the side of the then internationally recognized Libyan government with mercenaries and weapons. A short time later, the parties to the conflict agreed on a permanent ceasefire, and just over a year ago, Abdul Hamid Dbeibah was appointed interim head of government by a UN body.
His tenure was limited: he was to step down from power after the presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for December 24 last.
His grip on power ended quickly – but Baschagha’s ambitions are unlikely to have ended.
Image: AFP
Tugs over elections and more
But the elections were postponed to an undisclosed date. For several reasons: Among other things, controversial candidates had presented themselves; there is no permanent constitution defining the relationship between Parliament and the President; and various factions had refused to declare that they would accept the election results.
After her postponement, Dbeibah, with the support of the international community, declared that she would remain in office until one day an election actually took place. Dbeibah’s critics countered, saying he lost his government mandate because the votes were not held on time.
In order to emphasize its position against Dbeibah, the parliament in eastern Libya appointed Fatih al-Baschagha as the new head of government this spring. Since then, Libya has had two prime ministers. And both claim to determine their country’s politics, ultimately blocking it.
A failed attempt
Last week, Baschagha’s press service said that he and his followers had come to Tripoli to formally take up government business in the capital. Baschagha himself said in a video message that he had arrived in Tripoli “peacefully and safely”; the reception was “extremely good”.
But the fighting that began after Baschagha’s arrival in Tripoli shows arrogance. At least Baschagha was smart enough to withdraw after a few hours. He declared that he would “guarantee the security of the citizens” – and that he wanted to set up his government in the city of Sirte. But as soon as it is certain that there will be no bloodshed, he wants to return to the “kidnapped city” of Tripoli.
Uncertain loyalties
Apparently, Baschagha misjudged the extent of the military opposition: He must have assumed that his opponent Dbeibah would have fewer militias at his side. Although it is unclear how many of the gunmen actually support Dbeibah.
Many may be against Baschagha in particular. Behind him is General Khalifa Haftar, who would not like the fact that he has buried his claims to power and who may want to use Baschagha as a “stirrup holder” for himself.
Strengthened – but how much?
However, Bashagha’s retreat leaves him weakened. Interim Prime Minister Dbeibah emerges strengthened from the incident. This means that the political deadlock might break.
However, negotiations on the Libyan constitution, which is intended to establish the relationship between the presidency and parliament, have just been postponed in Egypt without having achieved anything. They should continue next month.
Has the power struggle strengthened his position? President Dbeibah must expect that his opponents will make another attempt to overthrow him.
Image: AP
The UN is also on the spot
Only external pressure can help. But the UN Security Council failed even to appoint a new UN special envoy for Libya after Jan Kubis left the post. Russia rejected a candidate in January.
Since then, Stephanie Williams, who UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres appointed as his “special adviser on Libya issues,” has been trying to fill the job. The world community should act now. But she is busy with Ukraine. Conflicts like the one in Libya are easily neglected.