Spain has moved to the right – the conservative PP party narrowly won the election. However, the right-wing bloc failed to achieve an absolute majority. Prime Minister Sanchez is also without a majority. Forming a government was allowed to get complicated.
After the parliamentary elections, Spain is heading towards a stalemate between the right and left camps. The conservative People’s Party (PP) led by challenger Alberto Nuñez Feijoo grew significantly and clearly became the strongest force ahead of Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s socialist PSOE. But neither the right nor the left camp achieved an absolute majority of the parliamentary seats.
The EU’s fourth-largest economy, which will hold the EU Council Presidency until the end of the year, faces a long stalemate and possibly another election. If it is not possible to form a government, another new election could become necessary.
Feijoo wants to rule
Although the PP was able to improve its position by 47 seats to 136 seats, even with the 33 seats of the right-wing populist party Vox, which has been traded as a possible partner, and another party, it is not enough for an absolute majority of 176 seats. After counting almost all votes, PP and Vox together get 170 of the 350 seats. At the same time, it is hardly foreseeable that other parties would help Feijoo, in conjunction with Vox, to gain a government majority.
According to polls, it was expected that Vox, as a supporter of the PP, would be the first right-wing party since the end of the Franco dictatorship in 1975 to gain direct influence on government action.
Nevertheless, Feijoo claimed the post of head of government in front of thousands of cheering supporters in Madrid. “I take on the task of starting negotiations to form a government,” said the 51-year-old.
Relief in the left camp
Socialist incumbent Sánchez is also likely to have major problems initiating a new edition of his left-wing minority government. His party was able to improve by two seats to 122 seats, making it the second strongest force. The PSOE would also need the support of other parties to form a government. However, with a total of 172 mandates for a possible coalition, there was no sign of a majority either.
Nevertheless, Sanchez was relieved. “Spain and all the citizens who voted made it clear. The backward-looking bloc that wanted to undo everything we did failed,” Sánchez told a cheering crowd at the PSOE headquarters in Madrid in the evening.
Vox wants links prestige projects collect
Like partner parties in Hungary and Poland, Vox has a very unique understanding of the rule of law. She is also Eurosceptic and calls for cashing in on prestige left-wing projects in the areas of social affairs, the protection of minorities and the environment, and for cracking down on separatists. The latter, in turn, could benefit Sánchez: he will be given a better chance of winning the backing of the Basque and Catalan regional parties, on whom Vox has a chilling effect.
“I see a blockade scenario in Parliament”
The political analyst Verónica Fumanal attested the PP a Pyrrhic victory because it was unable to form a government. Now the conservatives must turn to the extreme right and even then it will not be enough. “I see a blockade scenario in Parliament,” said Fumanal.
The German-Spanish historian Carlos Collado Seidel said that the PP knew the expected election result as the clear winner. However, Feijoo’s election as head of government and the formation of a government with it are still in the stars. A grand coalition could be ruled out.
Experts also assess Sánchez’ chances of rallying the majority of 176 deputies behind him that is necessary to govern as poor.
The Separatists as Kingmakers?
The unclear result could make the Catalan separatist party Junts the prime minister’s kingmaker. But if she calls for a referendum on independence from Catalonia, the price could be too high for Sánchez. Junts MP Míriam Nogueras has already hinted that her party now holds the keys to power. “We will not make Pedró Sánchez prime minister for nothing,” she said.
Sánchez had brought forward the election, which was originally planned for December, after his Socialists suffered severe losses in regional and local elections in May, surprising his rivals in the process. Even if a new election were to be held at the end of the now expected stalemate, the 51-year-old prime minister can look back on the last election night as another success in his career, which is based on a nimbus as a political stand-up man.
The PSOE has ruled Spain since 2018. Sanchez was the first politician in the country to overthrow an incumbent government by a motion of no confidence. Since January 2020 he has governed in a minority coalition with the left-wing Podemos party, which emerged from the protest movement against austerity policies.