fact finder
In a survey by the Friedrich-Ebert-Foundation, more than a third of the subjects agreed with several conspiracy stories – including a striking number of AfD voters. The corona vaccination status is also a factor.
Whether it’s about climate change, the corona pandemic or the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine: conspiracy stories are finding fertile ground in Germany. That shows one Study by the SPD-affiliated Friedrich-Ebert-Foundation. Accordingly, 54 percent of those surveyed agreed with at least one of five statements that can be assigned to conspiracy ideological circles. More than a third agreed with at least two conspiracy stories.
The statement that the government had deliberately frightened the population during the corona crisis in order to enforce massive restrictions on fundamental rights received the most approval. 36.3 percent of those surveyed agreed completely or at least somewhat. The fact that the corona virus is a bioweapon that was deliberately developed to harm people met with approval from 18.1 percent of the test persons.
Higher approval of people from East and South Germany
Overall, people from eastern and southern Germany agreed with these conspiracy stories about the corona pandemic more often than people from northern and western Germany. These regions have also seen the largest protests during the pandemic.
Anne Küppers, co-author of the study and research associate at the Institute for Political Science at Friedrich Schiller University Jena, explains this, among other things, with the lower level of trust in political institutions in East Germany. In addition, the poorer socio-economic situation is a factor. “Many studies show that social inequality or economic deprivation are associated with conspiracy beliefs.” On other issues, too, people from East Germany more often agreed with conspiracy ideological statements.
The fact that many people in southern Germany agreed with the conspiracy stories, especially about the corona pandemic, presumably has other reasons, says Küppers. “My guess would be that there are connections with esoteric and anthroposophical thinking, which is more widespread in Baden-Württemberg. This goes hand in hand with a certain skepticism about science.”
AfD voters particularly vulnerable
Corona vaccination status played an even bigger factor in approving the conspiracy narratives about the pandemic. Those who were not vaccinated agreed with the statements significantly more often. 85.6 percent of them are at least more of the opinion that the government used the pandemic in a targeted manner to massively restrict fundamental rights. Almost half also agreed with the conspiracy narratives about the coronavirus as a bioweapon. The approval ratings of AfD voters are similarly high.
The approval ratings of AfD voters and those who have not been vaccinated are also significantly higher for conspiracy narratives on other topics such as the war in Ukraine and climate change. 57.1 percent of AfD voters think the statement that the western world has conspired against Russia and its president in order to expand their own power is at least more correct – among voters for the Greens, the figure is only 11.9 percent. A good two-thirds of AfD voters were at least more likely to agree with the statement that scientists intentionally exaggerated the risks of climate change in order to receive more money and recognition for their research.
And that’s no coincidence, says Küppers. Because the highest approval ratings for conspiracy stories came from the extreme fringes, especially from the right-wing populist and extreme milieu. This is also reflected in the fact that 25 percent of those surveyed at least tended to agree with the statement that the ruling elites were pursuing the goal of replacing the German people with immigrants – a conspiracy narrative of the so-called “Great Exchange” spread by right-wing extremists.
People often believe more than one conspiracy myths
Küppers is not surprised that more than a third of those surveyed agreed to several conspiracy stories at the same time. “The strongest factor in explaining why someone believes a conspiracy story is: because they already believe in others.” Because some people have a kind of conspiracy mentality: “People who tend to see patterns everywhere, for which there are simply no coincidences and who smell secret machinations everywhere, have a basic susceptibility to conspiracy stories.”
With education it is possible to reduce the proportion of people within a society who believe conspiracy tales, says Küppers. However, conspiracy ideologues would not disappear completely. “There’s always around a third of the population that’s considered vulnerable. That’s relatively stable.” Times of crisis like the corona pandemic or the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine then made people fall for conspiracy stories. “Responsible for this can be the feeling of a loss of power or control, or the desire for explanations.”
rejection of representative democracy
One danger of conspiracy stories is the rejection of representative democracy, says Küppers. According to the study, two thirds of the supporters of conspiracy stories are dissatisfied with the functioning of democracy – in the rest of the population the figure is 26 percent. However, even among the conspiracy supporters, only very few advocated a single executive with comprehensive decision-making powers as the preferred model of government – the majority of them advocated regular referendums.
“Since they strongly distrust the government and political elites, many of the conspiracy ideologues reject representative democracy,” says Küppers. “So, of course, in a way it makes sense that they want direct democracy.” Here, too, the psychological desire to counteract the loss of control and power is expressed. “Co-determination opportunities like referendums can reduce this feeling and give people the feeling that they can have an influence.”
AfD voters particularly dissatisfied with democracy
But not only people who agree with conspiracy stories are skeptical about the functioning of democracy. Just under half of all respondents were satisfied with this – similar to 2019. According to this, people who are economically disadvantaged, those with low educational qualifications or those who see themselves as part of the lower or working class are significantly less satisfied with democracy. Only 32.8 percent of those questioned who belong to the lower or working class were satisfied with the functioning of democracy. In contrast, satisfaction among those surveyed in the upper middle and upper classes was 64.2 percent.
The discrepancy between East and West is increasing
According to the study, the differences in satisfaction between East and West Germany continued to increase compared to 2019: In the West, satisfaction with democracy rose by 2.5 percentage points (to 52 percent), in the East it fell by two points (to 34 percent). Respondents who are particularly right-wing politically showed that they were decidedly dissatisfied with democracy at 75 percent; 94 percent of AfD voters were dissatisfied.
On the other hand, only 51 percent of respondents who were particularly left-wing were dissatisfied. Green voters were the most satisfied: only 21 percent were dissatisfied, followed by those of the SPD with 34 percent. At around 71 percent, those surveyed placed by far the most trust in the Federal Constitutional Court of all democratic institutions, as the study also revealed.
According to the FES, the study is based on a representative survey of more than 2,500 Germans aged 18 and over who are entitled to vote.