The Likud, the party of former Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, came out on top on Tuesday 1er November of the Israeli legislative elections, according to exit polls, updated overnight. But uncertainty remains about his ability to rally a majority with his allies from religious parties and the far right.
According to these polls carried out by three major Israeli channels, Mr. Netanyahu’s party is credited with 30 or 31 seats, out of the 120 in Parliament, ahead of the Yesh Atid party of outgoing Prime Minister Yair Lapid, which would win between 22 and 24 seats. .
This is followed by nine parties, including the far-right Religious Zionism alliance of Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir with 14 seats, and the center-right party of ex-army chief Benny Gantz, credited with 11 to 13. seats.
With its allies, Mr. Netanyahu’s Likud would have 61 or 62 seats, obtaining a majority. But these scores could still change when the official results are announced, in particular depending on the seats won by the smaller parties.
“We are close to a great victory”said on the night of Tuesday to Wednesday the former Israeli prime minister. “I have experience, I have done some elections, we have to wait for the final results but our path, that of Likud, has proven to be the right one”he launched to his supporters gathered in Jerusalem.
“We have to wait for the final results” because “nothing is decided”declared for his part the current Prime Minister, Yaïr Lapid. “As long as the last ballot is not counted, nothing is decided. We will wait patiently, even if we are impatient, for the final results”he continued during a rally of his supporters in Tel Aviv.
“While exit polls indicate a trend, it is important to note that there have been lags between these polls and actual results in recent election cycles”analysis for Agence France-Presse (AFP) Yohanan Plesner, director of the Israel Democratic Institute, an analysis center in Jerusalem.
Without waiting for the final result, the Palestinian Prime Minister, Mohammed Shtayyeh, for his part denounced a “rise of far-right religious parties” during these elections, testifying according to him “the rise of extremism and racism in Israeli society”, including the Palestinian people “suffering for years”.
The role of arbiter of the Arab parties
In the Israeli proportional system, an electoral list must obtain at least 3.25% of the votes to enter Parliament with a minimum of four seats, a particularly critical situation for the parties of the Israeli Arab minority.
In 2020, the Arab parties, hostile to the right-wing bloc of Mr. Netanyahu, had won a record 15 seats after a dynamic campaign under a single banner. But this time, they presented themselves in dispersed order under three lists: Raam, Hadash-Taal (secular) and Balad (nationalist).
According to exit polls, the Raam and Hadash-Taal parties should pass 3.25%, while the Balad formation is flirting with this minimum. If it reached it, it would remove seats from Mr. Netanyahu’s “right-wing bloc”, with the risk for the latter of not being able to form a government.
“We are confident of reaching this threshold”said the Balad formation in a press release, claiming to have seen an increase in the participation of Arab voters in the last hours before the closing of the polls.
A participation rate of 71.3%
The Israelis rushed to the polling stations for these fifth legislative elections in the space of three and a half years, with, in the background, a Benyamin Netanyahu accused of corruption by the justice who wants to sign his great return to business.
The political class has multiplied the calls to vote to the 6.8 million registered voters, which seems to have borne fruit: at 71.3%, the participation rate is the highest since 2015.
Faced with the “right-wing bloc” of Mr. Netanyahu, Yaïr Lapid, 58, leader of the Yesh Atid (“There is a future”) party and leader of a coalition unique in the history of Israel because it brings together left, center, right and an Arab party, tried to convince that the course given in recent months should be maintained.
Her “coalition of change” ousted Benyamin Netanyahu from power in June 2021, before losing his parliamentary majority a year later, precipitating this fifth ballot since the spring of 2019.
These elections took place in a climate of renewed violence in the West Bank, Palestinian territory occupied by Israel since 1967, where the Israeli forces have increased their operations in recent months in the wake of deadly anti-Israeli attacks. Israeli operations have killed more than 120 Palestinians, the heaviest toll in seven years.