All Ukrainians and Swedes will have their eyes on Vilnius for the next two days. The Lithuanian capital welcomes the leaders of NATO member countries on Tuesday and Wednesday for a summit with capital issues. In the midst of Russian aggression in Ukraine, the threat to Europe, and more broadly to the West, is more real than ever. The summit will therefore be dominated by the Alliance’s response to the war waged by Moscow and the membership demands of Kyiv and Stockholm.
Why is Sweden’s membership so tricky?
After more than a year of deadlock, Turkey finally gave in. While Sweden applied for membership at the same time as Finland, unlike its neighbour, it will only be able to join NATO in the coming weeks. In question: a blockage of Turkey. Why would it have taken so long? “There is a kind of old dispute between Ankara and Stockholm, linked to the fact that Sweden is hosting Kurdish refugees whom Turkey considers a threat to its security”, explains to 20 minutes Nicolas Tenzer, specialist in strategic and international issues and teacher at Sciences po.
The Turkish president had already put pressure on Sweden following an authorized Islamophobic rally in Stockholm during which a Koran was burned. “Those who commit this crime as well as those who allow it under the guise of freedom of opinion, those who tolerate this despicable act will not be able to realize their ambitions”, he had threatened at the end of May. Recep Tayyip Erdogan was blackmailing ahead of the summit, conditioning his signature for Sweden’s membership on its entry into the European Union. “First pave the way for Turkey to join the European Union and then we will pave the way for Sweden, just as we paved the way for Finland,” he said on Monday. . The argument of the Turkish head of state is not incomprehensible even if it seems “completely inconsiderate”, notes Nicolas Tenzer. “This promise of integration into the European Union has been made to Turkey for years, it has even had the status of candidate for a long time, and it feels duped”, he develops.
The Turkish head of state seems to have changed his mind on Monday evening, giving his agreement to support Sweden’s accession to NATO. But Turkey was not the only country blocking Stockholm’s entry into the Alliance. Hungary is also reluctant, but for different reasons. “It’s Moscow’s Trojan horse”, illustrates Nicolas Tenzer. If she can mess up Europe, she does. “She had the opportunity here because Turkey started to say no, it’s an opportunity for her to show that she plays a different game”, analyzes the specialist again.
What can Ukraine hope for?
“This is the first subject we talk about in Ukraine”, assures Nicolas Tenzer. kyiv is also calling for its membership, but unlike Sweden, it has less chance of seeing itself as a member of NATO in the short term. Hungary will not even need to put its veto, the United States, first power of the Alliance, are against. ” I do not think so [que l’Ukraine] be ready to be part of NATO, ”said Joe Biden during an interview on CNN on Sunday. Germany is also against the idea, still in fear of an escalation with Russia and the belief that it would be a useless provocation. “They are in the idea that there is a kind of red line, which is madness”, tackles Nicolas Tenzer.
Moreover, if Ukraine were to join NATO immediately, the triggering of Article 5 would drag all 31 member countries directly into conflict with Russia. This is why consistent NATO case law provides for not admitting a country at war. At best, “Ukraine will have a formal promise of membership as soon as the war is over, a membership which will then be automatic”, estimates the specialist. In order to give assurances to kyiv, several Alliance heavyweights then negotiated possible long-term arms supply commitments to help Ukraine defend itself. According to diplomatic sources, these commitments would be formulated outside the framework of NATO.
Ukraine’s membership would, however, make the transatlantic Alliance stronger. It is, in fact, the country which today has “the leading combat army in the world in terms of operational capabilities, high intensity combat”, underlines Nicolas Tenzer. It would also be “a clear signal sent to Russia”, he adds.
Why is an effort in military spending essential?
The Transatlantic Alliance is already the strongest alliance in the world. If there are certain bilateral agreements between such and such a country, there is no equivalent on the planet, in terms of troops, nuclear guarantees, or even the equivalent of Article 5. But NATO needs to modernize and strengthen its armies. After the annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014, the member countries of NATO had committed themselves to moving towards the objective of devoting 2% of their GDP to military expenditure by 2024. The pursuit of invasion of Ukraine in 2022 reinforces this awareness that we will have to harden our positions.
“Nuclear deterrence is no longer enough, we also need conventional forces, defense capabilities, modernization, especially with regard to drones, we have to upgrade”, lists Nicolas Tenzer. Especially since at the dawn of a new American election, the outcome of which is very uncertain, NATO must be able to act, defend itself and support Ukraine without counting on the States -United.
Finally, the Russian invasion prompted NATO to thoroughly review its defense systems on its eastern front. The leaders have drawn up regional plans adapted to the new geostrategic context, which detail the main threats, the articulation of the means necessary to defend each region and the modes of action. Diplomats say Turkey has objected but should eventually give the go-ahead at the summit.