Saturday will be a public holiday in Iran, and it is difficult not to see it as a symbol. Iranians will commemorate the martyrdom of the cleric Reza, the eighth Shiite imam, who died in 818. His mausoleum rests in Mashhad, in the east of the country, in one of the largest mosques in the world. Nearly 16 hours away, in Iranian Kurdistan, the grave of another martyr, this time a civilian, will be particularly closely monitored. A year after the death of Mahsa Amini, arrested by the moral police for an ill-fitting veil, the government wants to avoid the resumption of the conflagration which spread across the country on September 16, 2022.
No event has been announced to mark the first anniversary of the death, usually celebrated among Muslims. Especially since the president, Ebrahim Raïssi, threatened: “Those who intend to abuse the name of Ms. Amini to create instability in the country” will pay a “high cost”. Words that resonate seriously as the regime’s repression following last year’s demonstrations left more than 500 dead.
Arrests in advance to prevent new demonstrations
“Mahsa Amini’s loved ones are silenced. They can’t call a meeting, can’t talk to the press. Tanks are deployed, it is no longer a police presence but a military presence” to prevent any gathering, indicates Mariam Pirzadeh, journalist specializing in Iran and editor-in-chief at France 24.
“Mahsa Amini’s family is facing enormous pressure (the student’s uncle was arrested). They want to hold a commemoration and have warned that they do not want violence, specifies Thierry Coville, researcher at IRIS and author of the book. Iran, a power on the move (2022). To prevent gatherings and anticipate, the regime carried out preventive arrests. A singer was arrested, teachers dismissed from their posts. »
A year after the tragedy which affected the 22-year-old student, moved the international community and outraged the country, the wave of “Woman, Life, Liberty” protests that resulted from it was not swallowed up by the fierce repression of the diet. “Many women have decided to remove their veil. They find themselves subject to the arbitrary judgment of the police. Some let them pass, others stop them, explains Mariam Pirzadeh, a Franco-Iranian who is regularly in telephone contact with women living there. The government is working on a legislative arsenal to toughen sentences, block women’s bank accounts and punish them even more.”
Towards a resurgence of violent protests?
After the fever of deadly clashes between demonstrators and the police, the fight following “the most significant political crisis since the Islamic Revolution” has been transfigured. “The fight has transformed. It has become a low-intensity fight where women risk a lot. Going out without the veil is completely new. The idea is to tell the regime: ‘Don’t think our demands have disappeared’ », analyzes Thierry Coville.
The context, the anniversary date, the repression… Can the fermentation of all these ingredients promote a resurgence of the revolt of September 2022? “It’s difficult to make a firm statement on the issue,” eludes the specialist. We can still list several elements: a society with modern ideals opposed to the thinking of the ultraconservatives and an economic crisis with almost 45% inflation. The factors exist, but for the moment they have stopped translating into riots.”
For Mariam Pirzadeh, the death of Mahsa Amini played the role of a “trigger” for new mobilizations. “The anger of many Iranians increases tenfold with each execution, with each conviction. Many are more afraid of arrests, with violent interrogations or torture, than of death.”