A threat also for Germany?

The terrorist group ISPK is no stranger to the German security authorities. The problem has long since arrived in Germany. What does the attack near Moscow change?

Gera on Tuesday last week: The Federal Prosecutor’s Office has two men arrested. The two Afghans are suspected of planning an attack. Specifically, they are said to have agreed to shoot and kill police officers and passers-by around the parliament building in Stockholm.

Your alleged clients are in Afghanistan: with the terrorist organization ISPK. What is certain is that the alleged plans were thwarted at an early stage.

First signs already in 2019

But regardless of whether that would have happened or not: ISPK is the Islamist terrorist group that has been causing German security authorities the most concern for some time when it comes to the threat of Islamist terrorism.

What is certain is that the IS branch in Afghanistan not only carried out attacks there, but also declared that they wanted to carry out attacks in Europe. Developments, particularly in the last two years, make it clear that the organization is consistently pursuing this goal.

The first signs were already there in 2019, when a terrorist cell was founded in North Rhine-Westphalia that was in contact with IS in Afghanistan and was supposed to kill an Islam critic in Germany on behalf of the organization. Six men, all Tajiks, were sentenced to several years in prison. Since then, it has been clear to the German security authorities that the IS offshoot in Afghanistan can also be expected in this country.

Since 2022, the threat has become significantly more concrete and intensified: As a result of the refugee movement from Ukraine, ISPK supporters infiltrated into Germany. They were mainly Tajiks, but also Uzbeks, Turkmen and Kyrgyz. The security authorities have a total of around 50 people on their radar, up to 40 of whom are said to be in North Rhine-Westphalia.

In recent months, it has become clear that the terrorist group from Afghanistan is purposefully trying to carry out attacks in Germany and Europe: In July 2023, a seven-member group was arrested that is said to have been given the order to carry out attacks in Germany. The men are said to have already started scouting out suitable locations.

Shortly before Christmas, the German security authorities received a tip from a foreign secret service that an attack on Cologne Cathedral, St. Stephen’s Cathedral in Vienna and a cathedral in Madrid was being planned on New Year’s Eve. The police were present to secure the cathedral plate in Cologne, and several suspects were arrested.

However, it was not possible to prove that the men had a concrete plan; they either initially remained in preventive custody or were released again after a few days. The main suspect was deported to Austria.

There is still no complete reassessment of the threat situation

What worries the security authorities above all: After the terrorist organization was defeated militarily and went underground again, they did not trust IS to carry out complex attacks for a long time – like in Paris in 2015 and in Brussels in 2016, where several attackers carried out coordinated attacks.

However, the IS subsidiary ISPK has been believed to be able to do this for some time. The attack in Moscow is depressing evidence of the organization’s ability to do this. All the more so because this attack could have been carried out in Russia – a country with strong security authorities.

So far, Federal Interior Minister Nancy Faeser has said that the threat remains acute – but that doesn’t sound like a complete reassessment of the threat situation in this country in light of the events in Moscow. But it may still be too early for that.