The long-awaited moment has arrived: the examination, article by article and amendment by amendment, of the 2023 budget, began on Wednesday in the Assembly. More specifically: the first reading of the first part of the finance bill (PLF), which concerns revenue. The government had reason to fear this day after the parliamentary berezina the previous night. During the night of Tuesday to Wednesday, the Assembly had emptied of its substance the budget planning bill, supposed to present a trajectory of return under the 3% deficit.
Is this what decided the Council of Ministers, Wednesday, to already authorize the government to use article 49.3 if necessary? “I suspected that the rather bitter defeat of the government was going to speed things up”, commented Wednesday noon the rebellious president of the Finance Commission, Eric Coquerel. As a reminder, article 49.3 allows the government to have a text adopted without a vote, unless a motion of censure is voted on immediately. Except that Wednesday’s debates had nothing to do with those of the previous night. The introductory article of the PLF – which took up the orientations of the bill crushed the day before – was certainly rejected. But this was an event, not a surprise: the lower house remained coherent.
A quiet discussion…
The surprise is the tone of the debates, peaceful and cordial most of the time. Faced with questions from the opposition, in particular from Nupes, on the future use of 49.3 – “Is the inevitable certain? “, asked, mockingly, the president of the socialist group, Boris Vallaud – the Minister of the Economy, Bruno Le Maire, played the appeasement: “We have all the time necessary and will take all the time necessary with Gabriel Attal. The main thing is that we have the best possible budget for France. But there will come a time when France will need a budget. We will assume our responsibilities, but only after an in-depth debate. »
In the end, three quarters of the government day was rather calm. Apart from one or two non-revolutionary amendments, nothing has passed. It should be noted, however, that until then, the subjects covered are technical. And that if the ranks of the majority are rather provided, the mobilization of the oppositions, it is not always at the top: sometimes sparse on the Nupes side – “the night (from Tuesday to Wednesday) left traces” -, confided a green – often almost empty on the LR side, despite the government’s rounds of legs in their direction. This absence had been anticipated by the majority: “The LRs? They will be 10 in session! “, predicted last week a framework of the majority, which pointed to the hypocrisy of the right-wing party.
…but not without consequences
But is this peaceful debate really good news for the executive? It does not change the main fact: there is still no majority to vote for the budget, so there is still a need for 49.3. And there are fewer arguments to sell it to public opinion, since the debate is not blocked. On the other hand, the oppositions gain: they make proposals, numerous (there are more than 3,000 amendments), sometimes very political, sometimes more technical, but the attitude of the government is always the same: unfavorable opinion. Worse: even the amendments from the majority and Renaissance receive unfavorable opinions.
This was particularly evident when things got tough, at more than 11 p.m., when the amendment by the chairman of the MoDem group, Jean-Paul Mattei, on the taxation of “super dividends” came to the table, failing which to tax the “super profits”. A compromise amendment proposed by a group of the majority … which even had the favors of Eric Coquerel: “On this kind of thing, we would be ready to find solutions”, he had announced earlier. “It is a very reasonable, very constructive amendment”, estimated for his part the deputy RN Jean-Philippe Tanguy. In the majority, Horizon announced its abstention. Compromise therefore seemed possible in this fragmented Assembly.
The blocking ball in the executive’s court
However, the government gave an unfavorable opinion. The proposal does not change the face of the world, it would temporarily increase by only five points, on certain companies, the taxation of dividends. But for Gabriel Attal, the Minister Delegate in charge of Public Accounts, it is a negative “signal effect” for the economic attractiveness of France. The amendment was voted, and widely (227 for, 88 against) with even 19 votes from Renaissance, including that of the deputy Prime Minister. “We have the perfect illustration that you are in your lane and you don’t want to get out, launched the rebellious Manuel Bompard. Even for a compromise amendment from a majority group president, you do not give a favorable opinion! »
The government remains attached to its text, which it knows however that there is not a majority to vote for it. “It may be a bad signal, the question arises”, analyzed a MoDem deputy after midnight, relativizing the importance of this unfavorable opinion: “It is the central administration of Bercy which is very conservative, to us to push them. »
The question arises: will the government keep this amendment, which has become a symbol, in the text that will be submitted to 49.3? Remember that he can do what he wants with this text: remove voted amendments, add non-voted ones… Or return to his original text. “We like to debate, but not for nothing,” warned Communist MP Sébastien Jumel at the start of the discussion. After this opening, however without big splinters, the oppositions – and part of the majority – perhaps put on the shoulders of the government the responsibility for a possible blockage. It is now up to him to show that he can compromise.