Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian said in an interview with AFP on Friday that a new war between his country and Azerbaijan is “very likely”. Moreover, the Prime Minister accuses Baku of carrying out a “genocide” of the Armenians in the enclave of Nagorny Karabakh.
The two countries have already fought two wars for control of this mountainous territory and attempts to normalize relations, conducted under the mediation of the European Union, the United States and Russia, have not produced results.
“A genocide that is in progress”
Tensions escalated in early July when Azerbaijan on various pretexts closed traffic on the Lachin Corridor, the only road linking Nagorny-Karabakh to Armenia. This Azerbaijani blockade has created a serious humanitarian crisis within the enclave, mainly populated by Armenians, with shortages of food and medicine and frequent power cuts.
“It is not a genocide in preparation, but a genocide that is in progress,” said Nikol Pashinian, accusing the Azerbaijani army of having created a “ghetto” in Nagorny-Karabakh. Residents of this territory interviewed by AFP last week described empty stalls in stores and a dangerous lack of access to healthcare.
The last war between the two countries, in 2020, ended in the defeat of Armenia, which had to cede territories to Azerbaijan in and around Nagorny-Karabakh. The peace process has since stalled. “Until a peace treaty has been signed and such a treaty has been ratified by the parliaments of both countries, of course, a (new) war (with Azerbaijan) is very likely,” warned Nikol Pashinian. Russia, which has a contingent of peacekeepers on the spot, is struggling to contain the crisis. Moscow has been accused of inaction by Armenia and of failing to fulfill its obligations by Azerbaijan.
A stuck situation
The last round of peace negotiations, held on July 15 in Brussels, having failed to achieve a breakthrough, Nikol Pashinian said on Friday that the West and Russia should exert increased pressure on Baku in order to lift the blockade. “According to the logic of some Western circles, Russia does not meet all our expectations because it does not fulfill its obligations, but Russia tells us the same thing about the West,” he explained. According to Nikol Pashinyan, the negotiations between the two rivals are hampered by “Azerbaijan’s aggressive rhetoric and hate speech against Armenians”. He accused Baku of carrying out a “policy of ethnic cleansing”.
On the ground, despite the establishment of a ceasefire in 2020, deadly armed clashes remain regular both in Nagorny-Karabakh and on the border between the two countries. Yerevan even accuses Baku of gradually eating away at Armenian territory. Nikol Pashinian thus indicated that his country’s “red lines” for talks with Azerbaijan are “the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Armenia, as well as the rights and security of the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh”.
6,500 dead during the last conflict
This enclave had already been the subject of a war at the fall of the USSR in the 1990s, which cost the lives of 30,000 people. The more recent conflict, in 2020, left 6,500 dead on both sides. Mainly populated by Armenians and supported by Yerevan, Nagorny-Karabakh is considered by the international community to be part of the sovereign territory of Azerbaijan. “The case of Armenia is difficult, because Armenia’s interest in this process (of defending the people of Karabakh) is perceived and interpreted by Azerbaijan as a so-called encroachment on its territorial integrity,” Nikol Pashinian said.
In previous rounds of Western-mediated negotiations, Yerevan agreed to recognize Nagorny-Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan, but demanded international mechanisms to protect the rights and safety of the region’s ethnic Armenian population. Baku insists that these guarantees must be provided at the national level and rejects any international format. Nikol Pashinian insisted on Friday on the need for a dialogue between Azerbaijan and the Karabakh authorities, “in the context of international mechanisms where we have a witness”. “The witness present will be the international community,” he said.