a complicated end to 2023 with a new increase in the fourth quarter

This start of the year looks more and more like a way of the cross for the newly appointed government. In addition to having to manage the anger of farmers, capable of spilling over at any moment, we now have to juggle a confirmed deterioration in the labor market. According to figures published by Dares this Thursday, January 25, 3,033,300 people would be without any activity (category A) on average in the 4th quarter of 2023 (entire France excluding Mayotte). An increase of 0.2% (or 4,800 more people), this is a second consecutive increase. By adding individuals with sustained reduced activity (category B and C), their number rises to 5.4 million. The progression is more marked there (+1%, or 54,000).

These figures sound like an alert for the new Minister of Labor, Catherine Vautrin. The former president of Grand Reims, appointed in mid-January, inherited an expanded scope compared to her predecessor, Olivier Dussopt, with the addition of Health and Solidarity to her portfolio. Expanded room for maneuver which should allow it to relaunch the battle for full employment. Despite the current trend, the head of state refuses to abdicate on the flagship promise of his 2022 campaign. During his speech in mid-January, the tenant of the Élysée launched avenues of work, such as “an act 2 of labor market reform” expected “next spring”. He also explained that he wanted to develop for the unemployed “tougher rules when job offers are refused and better support”.

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Rise of France Travail

In the shorter term, the minister will have to look into the agreement, if any, between unions and employers on the work of seniors and career paths. The negotiation is part of the continuation of the pension reform and should make it possible to achieve “full employment of seniors”. Concretely, the measures developed by the representatives of employees and employers, which will subsequently be the subject of one or more laws, must increase the employment rate of 60-64 year olds from 36.2% in 2022 to 65% “by 2030”. A very determined objective. It will also need to support the rise of the new public operator France Travail (formerly Pôle emploi), which was created on 1^er January. Behind the name change, this transformation should allow better support for RSA recipients but also facilitate the transition to hiring small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs).

This voluntarism, however, seems insufficient in the short term to hope to reverse the unemployment curve. According to forecasters, the rate should continue to rise in the coming months. According to the most pessimistic, such as the Bank of France, it could even be around 8% at the end of 2024.