“It’s exceptional in terms of heat, like the month of September,” says Tristan Amm, forecaster at Meteo France. The country will break new records at the start of October with a heat peak expected on Monday. The record is currently held on October 3, 1985, with 21.76°C on average across the entire territory. “On Saturday, temperatures will start to rise until the beginning of next week,” explains Tristan Amm. According to the specialist, many records for the month of October are threatened with “huge anomalies” which could exceed 10°C.
The most affected departments will be Haute-Garonne, Tarn and Tarn-et-Garonne where temperatures around 35°C are expected for the first days of the month. However, the entire country will be affected by this historic heat wave for the month of October. The South-East will reach 32°C while Île-de-France expects 30°C. The most spared will be the Bretons and the inhabitants of the north of France… On Tuesday, disturbances will moderate this heat wave modestly but temperatures will rise again afterwards, according to forecasts.
A summery start to autumn to which we will have to get used to… Already last year, the month of October was recorded as the hottest with an excess temperature which reached +3.5°C over the set of the month…. At the start of October, we will be at +4°C…
The impact of climate change
“Climate change favors an extension of heat waves beyond the summer season and plays an amplifying role during hot episodes, such as the heat episode that France experienced from September 3 to 11. On the other hand, the Saharan air masses which rise over Southern Europe are increasingly hotter with global warming,” explains Christine Berne, climatologist at Météo-France to explain the phenomenon. “These temperatures are also favored by the anticyclonic conditions of the moment. The high pressure over the country will also contain the Saharan air masses for longer,” adds Tristan Amm.
According to the two specialists, for the year, we are not yet in the IPCC’s worst scenario but climatologists and forecasters fear an October with sad records. And in a few years, heatwave warnings could extend beyond summer…