analysis
War in Ukraine
2023 was difficult for Ukraine, 2024 will not be better
Main battle tanks of the Ukrainian 10th Mountain Assault Brigade
© Ministry of Defense of Ukraine
Ukraine went into 2023 with high hopes, but they have not been fulfilled. The counteroffensive stalled and no large-scale gains were made. There is a risk of further problems in the coming year.
This series of successes should continue in 2023 – now on a large scale. The Ukrainian military has been equipped with Western weapons systems, which should make it easy to defeat the demoralized Russians. One thought.
Meanwhile, even the greatest optimist no longer claims that the Ukrainian counteroffensive was a success. Instead of driving the Russians into the sea, the Ukrainians managed to break into the Russian position system. The first main Russian battle line was crushed in only one place; the rest of the fighting remained stuck in the outpost area. But the failed counteroffensive is just one of the problems facing Ukraine, for which the year 2024 could be disastrous.
Under pressure on the whole front
See you at the turn of the year Kyiv forced into the defensive along the entire front. The Russians are slowly but steadily working their way forward. The individual conquests are unspectacular. Here a row of trees, there a ruined settlement, somewhere else a hilltop. The line-up is what makes the small advances so dangerous. The Ukrainian front is constantly melting away. Also shocking that the Russians are able to continue these attacks despite their losses. If this continues in the winter weeks, Kiev will lose all of its summer conquests. The two advances at Klishchiivka south of Bakhmut and at Robotyne will not serve as a springboard for any offensive operations in the summer of 2024.
Ground offensive 2024
It is also noticeable that there is no longer any talk of Ukrainian ground offensives. If a new counteroffensive were to be planned, the material would have to be made available now. The worn-out units of the 2023 counteroffensive would have to be re-equipped with military equipment on a large scale. New deliveries of battle tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and artillery should now be discussed. If that doesn’t happen, Ukrainian troops will remain on the defensive.
Little Ukraine cannot win this form of battle of attrition. Russia has increased its war production and will continue to increase it. In addition, Moscow will receive not only ammunition but also weapons systems from North Korea in 2024. Kiev relies on the help and goodwill of its allies for all expenses Kremlin on the other hand, has full coffers.
If you look at the material, Kiev can only continue the war if the West helps even more in 2024 than has been done so far. To do this, the supporting states would have to massively boost the production of new military equipment because their warehouses have largely been emptied. Given the difficult economic situation and our own budget problems, this will not be easy. The USA will be dominated by the election campaign in 2024. Regardless of the outcome of the US election, it will be difficult for Ukraine to shoulder major burdens in the election year. Especially when the audience at home cannot be won over with reports of victory. It is currently questionable whether the Europeans and especially Germany can or even want to close this gap.
Urgent recruitment problem
Kiev not only has problems replenishing the material, it is also having a harder time recruiting new recruits. The potential of committed volunteers is likely to have been exhausted after almost two years of war. Anyone who wants to fight of their own free will has already registered. In principle it should be possible Military to continue to increase, because Ukraine is a country with more than 40 million inhabitants. However, the government in Kiev does not control all areas, and many men have avoided military service by fleeing abroad. Kiev will try to put pressure on the refugees to convince them to “voluntarily” return to the country and go to the front. The EU countries are unlikely to use force to deport those unwilling to enlist in Ukraine. In addition, the recruit problem touches on a taboo because it reminds us that by no means all Ukrainians want to defend the country with weapons. Nevertheless, Kiev needs to solve its shortage of personnel. New brigades are to be set up, the losses must be replaced, and voices are growing louder that the soldiers who have been at the front for almost two years will be replaced.
Strikes in the depths
It is currently difficult to see opportunities for Kiev on the front. Recently, Ukraine has achieved success when it has been able to use stand-off weapons such as the Storm Shadows or missiles such as the ATACMS. With these long-range, high-tech weapons, Kiev can attack valuable targets deep in the Russian hinterland. Single hits can cause great damage, for example when ships in the Russian fleet are destroyed. The hope lies in paralyzing the Russian steamroller not with mass, but with superior technology.
The components for this are the already mentioned long-range missiles. There are also F-16 fighter aircraft, which are intended to compensate for the losses of Ukrainian jets and are on a par with modern Russian aircraft. And effective air defense to end Russian dominance in the airspace behind the front line, for example by supplying additional Patriot systems.
All of this won’t necessarily be enough to put the Russians back on the ground, but it would destroy Putin’s attrition calculation. The Kremlin should realize that it cannot win and cannot prolong the war in Ukraine at will. The danger, however, lies in the fact that the West will – once again – deliver too late and too little. That the amount of jets, missiles and air defense batteries is not enough for the task. And after the first setbacks, the Russians will have time to adapt to the changed situation and meet the new threat.