The SPD has experienced many ups and downs in its 160 years. After the election victory in 2021, some comrades were already dreaming of the “social democratic decade”. Where’s the euphoria gone?
It was December 2021. Olaf Scholz had just been elected Chancellor after the SPD’s unexpected election victory and the formation of the traffic light government. At a party conference in Berlin, SPD leader Lars Klingbeil looked to the future: “Dear comrades, I am firmly convinced that this victory in the federal election was a great opportunity to shape a social democratic decade. And it is now up to us. “
In the meantime, a year and a half later, the social-democratic decade seems to have come to a standstill. The SPD is currently at 17 to 20 percent in the polls, the state election results have recently been pretty mixed. Won in Saarland and Bremen, remained in government in Lower Saxony despite losses, and the SPD lost significantly in North Rhine-Westphalia and Schleswig-Holstein.
All in all, the party seems a long way from the “social democratic decade” between 1969 and 1982. The historian Bernd Faulenbach attributed the term to the Brandt/Schmidt era.
Relatively large potential
Jana Faus, 45, regularly advises the Social Democrats with her agency Pollytix. She points to analyzes that would show that the SPD has relatively great potential. “Many voters say I can theoretically imagine voting for this party, but in the end they don’t.” The SPD can therefore often not exploit its theoretical potential. Same now. “There is a huge gap between the current polls and a social democratic decade,” says the political advisor.
Wolfgang Thierse, 79, was President of the Bundestag for the SPD during the government of Chancellor Gerhard Schröder. He is an honorary member of the SPD Basic Values Commission. Thierse considers the concept of the social democratic decade to be a claim, but not a reliable prognosis.
Nevertheless, the conditions for social-democratic answers and concepts are currently not bad: “The times of neoliberalism, leaving everything to the market and pushing back the state, are over,” says Thierse. The various crises such as the financial crisis and the corona pandemic have shown the need for government in the economy and the citizens. “The Social Democrats know that government action is required more than ever. But most citizens also demand it.”
Brand core social balance
Thierse still sees the SPD as a people’s party that cannot aim to serve the interests of individual clientele. This distinguishes the SPD from the smaller coalition partners FDP and Greens: “The SPD must advance the necessary ecological reforms and the necessary technological reforms in such a way that a lot of people are taken along. That they not only experience the pain, but also the advantages and wins.”
Political advisor Faus also believes that the core of the SPD brand must be social balance. Everyone knew that the transformation of the economy would entail costs. Distributing these costs fairly is the task of the SPD. Then people would be willing to do their part.
The current discussions about the Building Energy Act show how difficult it is to meet this requirement. On the one hand, there is the goal that heating in Germany will be largely climate-neutral in the foreseeable future. On the other hand, many people have already got the impression that they will be financially overwhelmed by the heating requirements in the future.
Dilemma in the traffic light coalition
Political advisor Faus is currently missing the clear social democratic handwriting on the question. In contrast to the crisis management of the past few years: “The SPD succeeded very well when people in the corona crisis were dependent on short-time work benefits. The relief packages also had an SPD signature – and that was appreciated.”
From Faus’ point of view, however, the SPD has not yet clarified all questions for itself when it comes to the energy transition. “And of course she’s also in a coalition that doesn’t make it easy to govern in a purely social-democratic manner.”
Faus sees the SPD in a dilemma in the three-party coalition with the Greens and FDP: On the one hand, the SPD must be visible in the coalition and give social democratic answers. At the same time, someone is needed to hold the coalition together and not cause any disputes. “This dilemma can hardly be solved.”
Scholz not an “emotional catcher”
According to Faus, Chancellor Scholz is not visible enough for many citizens. He’s not an “emotional catcher,” she says. Many voters wanted a chancellor who was considered and thought through decisions calmly and then did things with little fuss. “At the same time, someone is needed who addresses the population’s concerns at the moment and makes a connection. That’s not necessarily Olaf Scholz’s strength.”
SPD honorary member Thierse points out that in view of the many crises and the current times of change, almost all governments in Europe have problems being popular. “The governments in office don’t have a lot of approval ratings anywhere. Whether in Sweden or Finland, whether in Great Britain or France.”
Neither Thierse nor Faus dare to predict whether the 2020s will be a social-democratic decade. On the occasion of the party’s 160th birthday, the political advisor sees the danger that the SPD could wear itself out in the coalition between the conflicting partners. The SPD veteran warns against giving up the claim to be a people’s party: it has become more difficult to formulate common interests. But that remains the task of social democracy.”