Researchers have recalculated how much greenhouse gases the world can still emit in order to meet the Paris goals. The first budget is therefore as good as all of them. But two degrees would be manageable – for now.
It is very likely that the world will warm up by more than 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to the period before industrialization. This emerges from an updated calculation of the carbon budget, i.e. the amount of greenhouse gases that humanity is still allowed to emit in order not to exceed the 1.5 degree threshold, at least with a 50:50 chance. The international community actually agreed in the Paris Climate Agreement to limit global warming to below 1.5 degrees Celsius if possible. “There is no longer a single climate scenario that can even describe how this is supposed to work,” says climate researcher Joeri Rogelj from Imperial College London. “It’s outside the realm of possibility.”