“We do not encourage and we do not help Ukraine to launch strikes in Russia. Antony Blinken’s statement is crystal clear. On Tuesday, the US Secretary of State dissociated himself from the drone attacks perpetrated by the Ukrainian army on Russian soil in recent days. kyiv’s attitude embarrasses Washington, which nevertheless reaffirmed its support for its ally. Where do these drones come from? Do targeted attacks mark a turning point in the war? 20 minutes takes stock with Carole Grimaud, expert at the Geneva Geostrategic Observatory and specialist in Russia.
What are these attacks on Russian soil?
In recent days, Ukraine has intensified its pressure on Russian territory. On Monday, the Russian Defense Ministry deplored strikes by kyiv with “Soviet-designed” drones on Engels air base in the Saratov region and Diagilevo air base in the Ryazan region. The latter is located just 200 kilometers from Moscow. The Russian government said its anti-aircraft defenses intercepted the drones, but the debris left “three dead” and “slightly” damaged two fighter jets.
On Tuesday, an airfield in the Kursk border region was hit by another projectile. He set fire to a fuel tank.
Whose are these drones?
The Russian newspaper Kommersant has writes that Ukraine had used Soviet TU-141 drones to strike, in particular, on Monday, the base of Engels, sheltering strategic bombers and located 500 km from the nearest Ukrainian border. In the aftermath, the British Ministry of Defense sent a small scud to Moscow saying that if kyiv had been able to carry out such an operation, the Kremlin should consider it “the most significant strategic failure to protect its forces since the ‘invasion of Ukraine’.
If kyiv continues not to claim these strikes and the vagueness persists, Joe Biden publicly assured on Tuesday that he did not encourage Ukraine to acquire long-range missiles. As to wall street journal, he claimed that the United States had restricted the Himar missiles in order to prevent Ukraine from touching Russian territory. finally, Ned Price let it be known that Washington was providing “Ukraine with what it needs to be used on its sovereign territory, on Ukrainian soil, to confront the Russian aggressor”. , The spokesman for American diplomacy therefore indicated in hollow that the military aid provided to kyiv (400 million in US aid, over $18 billion in EU aid) was not intended for attack outside its borders.
“It would therefore be a Ukrainian-made drone,” says Carole Grimaud. The United States supplies Himar artillery missiles to kyiv. But the Ukrainians have been asking for months for a longer-range capability, to no avail. They decided to bypass the Washington reservation by developing their own drones. »
These strikes in Russia, another escalation of the conflict?
“It’s a first that Ukraine can hit Russia so far from its borders, it changes the situation”, analyzes Carole Grimaud. Suffering strikes on its energy infrastructure, depriving its civilians of electricity and water in the middle of winter, Ukraine retaliates on the soil of its enemy. Like the Kursk attack, sensitive infrastructure, rail networks and “anything that could affect the transport of weapons in Ukraine” could also be targeted, our expert suggests, who assumes that “the Russians will probably reinforce their bombings.
And to add: “The Ukrainians have damaged Russian planes capable of carrying nuclear missiles. However, in Russia’s nuclear doctrine, any attempt to attack their nuclear power can trigger a response”. Not false. After the recent attacks, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that “necessary measures will be taken”, without providing further details. Still, Vladimir Putin on Wednesday clarified the Russian nuclear doctrine, ensuring that he would not use nuclear weapons first.
Can these drone attacks chill allied support?
Ukraine has not officially acknowledged the attacks on Russian soil. But a tweet from Mykhaïlo Podoliak, adviser to Volodymyr Zelensky, leaves little doubt about the origin of the attack: “The Earth is round – discovery made by Galileo. Astronomy was not studied in the Kremlin, giving preference to court astrologers. If so, they would know: if something is launched in the airspace of other countries, sooner or later, unknown flying objects will return to the starting point. »
As during the “shooting affair in Poland”, kyiv remains cautious and does not confirm being at the origin of the shootings. Still, these strikes illustrate the difficulties encountered by the invasion launched on February 24 by the Russian president, while the weight (and duration) of the war is beginning (also) to be felt on the side of kyiv’s allies. “So far, the war has been contained. Westerners bear the economic weight of the conflict. However, the question arises of their military power potentially weakened by the aid provided to Ukraine, explains Carole Grimaud. If actions are taken in Western Europe, these countries could react differently. »
And the signals, although weak, are not reassuring. Crushed animal eyes were sent to several Ukrainian embassies located in Western Europe. A letter bomb injured an employee of the Ukrainian embassy in Madrid (Spain). On Wednesday, 25 people, including a Russian national, were arrested in Berlin, accused of wanting to attack German institutions.
Despite everything, Jens Stoltenberg, secretary general of the Atlantic Alliance, declared on Wednesday that NATO members were continuing their “unprecedented” supply of arms and support to Ukraine, despite concerns about a possible depletion of western stocks. For his part, if the head of American diplomacy Antony Blinken affirmed on Monday that Washington was not helping “Ukraine to launch strikes in Russia”, he immediately tempered his remarks: “What is needed understand is that the Ukrainians live every day with the Russian aggression which continues”, he let go, accusing Moscow of “making winter a weapon” by bombing the civil infrastructures of Ukraine.