why real estate prices will not fall for several months

Because if, due to the increase in interest rates, inflation, the upcoming disappearance of the Pinel law and the drop in purchasing power, sales slow down, sellers will hardly have the choice : “Investors will withdraw their property from sale, and those who really need to sell will be mechanically forced to lower their pricedissects Jean-Sébstien Duracher. We will gradually move from the seller’s market to the buyer’s market, but for that, we will still have to wait several months.”

A past price increase for old apartments

In the meantime, in Marseille, in the old apartment market, the increase in prices per square meter increased, between May 2022 and May 2023, from + 10.1% to + 4.5%, i.e. a loss of speed of 5.5 points, higher than in the rest of the department. Between June 30, 2022 and July 1, 2023, the median price per square meter in Marseille increased by 8.2%. “This is the third highest increase in the department behind La Ciotat and Allauch.“, specifies Me Grégory Basset, notary in Marseille. The median price is now €3,130 per square meter. “Now there are 189,500 for a T3 against 177,300 in 2022“, illustrates the professional.

If the increases remain strong in certain sectors, the context is not unrelated. Thus, short-term rentals such as Airbnb explain that the Opera district reached a median price of €4,290/m² and that the Chapter recorded a 15% increase in its sales prices (€3,090/m²).

The city’s rehabilitation policy has allowed certain neighborhoods to get a second wind, this is the case with Rue de la République which had an impact on the Belsunce sector (+12% to 2,800 /m²)“, adds Me Basset. La Joliette (+11.4%, €3,090/m²) is also on the rise, as is Conception, which benefits from its proximity to the Plaine (+15.5%, €3,460/m²). m²) or the Cinq-Avenues which increasingly attract young people (3,240 €/m², a median price which remains the cheapest in the 4th arrondissement). The historically attractive sectors remain popular: Saint-Victor (+10 %, 4,530 €/m²) Endoume (+ 18.6%, 5,530 €/m²) or even Roucas-Blanc (+ 11%, 5,710 €/m², the most expensive in the city).

On the other side of Marseille, the 14th, 15th and 16th arrondissements, however, saw the increase in their prices flatten (+3.5% increase compared to 8.2% for the city as a whole).

In certain districts, these prices are falling, as in the south at La Plage (- 5%, €4,790/m²) and in the east, at Redon (- 6.7%, €2,810/m²), but also, and The biggest drop is in Marseille, at La Cabucelle in the northern districts (-8%, €1,180/m²).

The most remarkable phenomenon remains that if prices do not decrease significantly in Marseille, the number of sales of old apartments has fallen by 22% between 2022 and 2023.

An increasing median sales price for old homes

On the house side, the median sales price increased by 9.2% to €420,000. “It takes 398,000 to buy a T4 of 91 m² against 365,000 last year“, underlines Me Basset. The increase is strong (from 15% to 20%) in the 8th, 9th, 10th and 11th arrondissements, marked (from 6% to 9%) in the 14th, 15th and 16th arrondissements, Saint-André showing a median price increasing by 18% (€255,000).

In the 1st, 3rd and 4th arrondissements, sales prices have come to a halt, and they have even fallen by 20% over one year in the 6th (€440,00 compared to €573,700 last year). “We note a significant drop in the volume of sales of old houses, of around 24%.“, concludes Me Basset, while recalling that these volumes are comparable to 2018-2019, “which were considered good years“.

A fall in the volume of sales of new apartments

In new construction, despite an increase in the median price (+5.4%, €5,120/m², or €300,000 for a 63 m² one-bedroom apartment compared to €290,000 last year), the fall in sales volume ( – 40%) affects Marseille “due to the increase in inflation rates, the announced disappearance of the Pinel law system but also the inflation which affected construction materials and the drop in the number of building permits issued in Marseille“, emphasizes Me Basset.

No invasion of Ile-de-France residents on the buyer side

If for apartments, the most popular are the T3s, we tend to buy type 4 houses in Marseille. As for the profile of the buyers, 18% are under 30 years old, 13% over 60 years old. “And no, contrary to what people say, there is no ‘invasion of Ile-de-France residents’, they only represent 9% of buyers, like in past years, with a downward trend“, specifies the president of the departmental chamber of notaries. Note that 2% of these buyers in Marseille are foreigners.

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