Where is Turkey headed after Erdogan’s election victory?

Status: 05/29/2023 7:44 p.m

What will happen after Erdogan’s election victory in Turkey? The political scientist Bagci does not believe that Erdogan will now completely do away with democracy. But Erdogan can now appear even more confident abroad.

Turkey is experiencing historic days: for the first time there was a runoff election for the presidency and the winner Recep Tayyip Erdogan also made history.

“The fact that Tayyip Erdogan has been elected for another five years is also unique in our history – it’s 100 years this year,” says political scientist Hüseyin Bagci in Ankara. “We have never had a politician who will be in government for 25 years. Historically speaking, he is an exceptional personality in Turkish history.”

Election observers criticize the circumstances of the election

Frank Schwabe, head of the Council of Europe’s international election observation mission, leaves no doubt in his assessment of the election: “The second round of the presidential election produced a clear winner. Nevertheless, the second round, like the first, took place in an environment that in many respects did not meet the requirements for democratic elections.”

Observers criticize the unequal chances of the candidates in the Turkish media, i.e. the clear overrepresentation of Erdogan compared to his challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu. In addition, the top national electoral authority, which oversees the elections, lacks transparency.

In his 20 years in power, Turkish President Erdogan has shaped his country like Atatürk, the founder of the republic, has done before him.
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Criticism also of challenger Kilicdaroglu

Schwabe also criticizes statements made during the election campaign: “After the campaigns with violent and hate speech against minorities, I would really like to ask that this be stopped. Whether they are directed against LGBTQI from one side of the political spectrum or against refugees, which we do experienced from across the political spectrum in the second round.”

Schwabe is addressing the intensified tone of Kilicdaroglu’s election campaign in the second round, which was directed against refugees, for example. Developments in Turkey will continue to be monitored.

After the election, Kilicdaroglu announced that he would continue to fight for democracy. Political scientist Bagci is less pessimistic about his country’s situation: “Turkey is and will remain democratic. Tayyip Erdogan’s attempt to separate Turkey from the democratic world will not be possible because the European Union, for example, is – as we say – structural power is.” Turkey is part of all institutions.

Before the run-off election, Erdogan and his challenger are aggressively campaigning for votes in the nationalist milieu.
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Türkiye refuses to implement ECtHR ruling

Except that Turkey does not implement human rights judgments. In his balcony speech after the election, Erdogan once again made it clear that he does not want to release the imprisoned former leader of the opposition party HDP, Selahattin Demirtas – even if the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) had ordered this. Actually, the Council of Europe should therefore draw conclusions and exclude Turkey. That didn’t happen before the election.

In this context, political scientist Bagci points to the congratulations that the heads of the EU and Chancellor Olaf Scholz sent to Erdogan after the election. “Turkey is a country that Europe cannot deny. Economically, militarily and also in terms of people, so many people live in Europe.”

Bagci is certain that after winning the election, Erdogan will appear in Brussels and the other western capitals with significantly more tailwind. The Turkish president cited the runoff election as proof of democratic elections in his country. The criticism of international observers should not deter him.

He himself accused foreign media of propaganda against him and again attacked the opposition.

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