analysis
The results of the state elections in Saxony and Thuringia were another blow for the Berlin traffic light coalition. One consequence: the centrifugal forces within the government are increasing. Will there be a split?
Selfie harmony, progressive coalition, spirit of optimism – everything that the traffic light coalition wanted to convey after the 2021 elections seems like it comes from a distant time. ARD summer interview In mid-August, Green Party leader Omid Nouripour slipped up the term “transitional government”.
The obviously frustrated Nouripour did not want to give the traffic light model a great future. Nothing could be ruled out, “but it is obvious that trust has reached its limits.”
The FDP is struggling the most
The Liberals are even more concerned with the coalition. It is no longer just well-known traffic light critics like Wolfgang Kubicki or Frank Schäffler who speak of “unfamiliarity with the traffic light” and the traffic light as a “millstone” for the FDP.
Gyde Jensen, deputy parliamentary group leader, is a young liberal who has previously been considered friendly to the traffic light coalition. She told the editorial network Germany: “In the next few days we have to find a clear answer to the question of whether the traffic light coalition will really help our country – or whether it will actually end up damaging the country and our democracy.”
Things have been simmering at the FDP base for a long time. A member survey on leaving the traffic light coalition failed just barely at the turn of the year. Now a new initiative with the title “Wake-up call” is making waves. It demands: “Leave the traffic light coalition or resign” – and by that they mean none other than Christian Lindner. For the first time, Lindner’s authority as party leader is being publicly questioned.
Lindner himself joins the ranks of critics and blames participation in the traffic light coalition for the catastrophic results in Saxony and Thuringia, where the FDP only received around one percent of the vote. His party is “on the defensive as part of a coalition that is extremely unpopular with the citizens.” But he continues to reject leaving the traffic light coalition. He justifies this by referring to the measures agreed by the coalition to strengthen the economy.
However, Lindner is making the relevant resolutions a condition for remaining in the coalition: In particular, they will not allow “delays and dilutions in the necessary tax relief” on which the federal government has agreed.
Kühnert also sets conditions
But it is not just the FDP chairman who is laying down the stakes; SPD General Secretary Kevin Kühnert is also setting conditions for continued cooperation in the government. His party will “not accept that centrally agreed projects are simply ignored.”
Kühnert refers to the government’s pension package, which continues to be met with great reservations in parts of the FDP faction. Kühnert goes one step further in the direction of the Liberals: they will not allow themselves to be “led around by the nose” by parties that have failed miserably to enter state parliaments.
The SPD and FDP are united by the fact that the traffic light coalition partners are held responsible for their own election results. After the defeat in the European elections, Kühnert had already lashed out at the coalition partners and spoke of “contact shame”: the unpopularity of the FDP and the Greens was having a negative impact on the SPD.
There is a lot at stake for the SPD in Brandenburg
It therefore seems unlikely that there will be any more harmony within the traffic light coalition. However, the SPD’s real challenge is still to come with the state elections in Brandenburg on September 22nd: Dietmar Woidke, a social democratic state premier, is running for re-election.
If Woidke fails because of the anti-traffic light mood in the country, doubts about their own chancellor and another chancellor candidacy by Olaf Scholz could grow within the SPD. So far, criticism within the party has been limited to criticism of the government’s communication. Party leader Saskia Esken says that the government must do something to improve its “attitude ratings”.
Is better explanation enough?
But is it enough to simply explain your own policies better to regain trust in politics? While statements by leading Social Democrats give this impression, leading politicians from both the Liberals and the Greens are skeptical.
Ricarda Lang, co-chair of the Greens, says self-critically: “We have to acknowledge that this government has so far failed to give the country the stability it deserves.” Without changes in policy, it will not work, says Lang.
FDP leader Lindner is even more drastic: He can no longer stand hearing people say that they just need to explain their own policies better to the citizens – that amounts to “a form of paternalism”. The task now is to act, which Lindner relates primarily to the issue of migration. There should be no bans on thinking here: “If the parties of the democratic center are not able to deliver, the citizens will literally look for an alternative.” The FDP is open to discussing changes to European asylum policy and the Basic Law.
Dispute between Scholz and Lindner
However, the SPD and the Greens do not want to go that far, despite the noticeable change in migration policy. Further substantive conflicts within the coalition could arise in the context of the parliamentary deliberations on the 2025 federal budget, which the traffic light government was only able to agree on with great difficulty.
For the first time in the almost three-year history of the traffic light coalition, a massive dispute between SPD Chancellor Scholz and Vice Chancellor Lindner became public. Previously, Scholz had often supported his finance minister; that now seems to be over.
Is this the end of the traffic light coalition? The poor poll results of all three coalition partners speak against an early break. The FDP could once again face the prospect of being eliminated from the Bundestag, as it did after the black-yellow coalition in 2013. FDP veteran Gerhard Baum warned his party in Bavarian Broadcasting also to commit “suicide out of fear of death”.
At the same time, leading politicians in the coalition are pointing to the uncertainties in world politics: France still does not have a stable government, presidential elections are coming up in the USA, and the war in Ukraine is continuing with undiminished severity.
Reassessment after Brandenburg election?
But it cannot be ruled out that in the end, domestic political disputes will make further cooperation impossible. In an internal letter quoted by “Focus”, FDP leader Lindner warned after Sunday’s election results against putting too much strain on the ongoing election campaign in Brandenburg by causing too much unrest within his own ranks.
After September 22nd, however, there could be a reassessment: “Decisions on the further strategy with a view to 2025 will only be made after Brandenburg.” A possible break with the traffic light coalition therefore remains on the agenda.