And one, and two, and three indictments? On Tuesday, Donald Trump said he had received a letter from Special Prosecutor Jack Smith informing him that he was the subject of the investigation into the events related to the January 6, 2021 storming of the Capitol and the transfer of power. Already indicted by federal justice in the series of classified documents, and by that of New York in the Stormy Daniels case and, Donald Trump is undoubtedly facing the most serious legal and political threat. 20 Minutes takes stock of this thorny issue and its consequences for the 2024 presidential election.
Is a new indictment certain?
No, but it is probable. “Jack Smith, Joe Biden’s crackpot Justice Department prosecutor, sent a letter (…) stating that I am the TARGET of the grand jury investigation into January 6,” Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social. This type of letter generally precedes an indictment, unless the person concerned succeeds in convincing the popular grand jury responsible for deciding on the charges to drop it.
Trump says he received the letter on Sunday, with “four short days” to explain himself to the grand jury, which he does not appear to have any intention of doing. This means that an indictment is, in theory, possible as early as Friday, although experts are counting on next week instead.
What charges is Donald Trump likely to face?
Jack Smith, the special prosecutor appointed by the Minister of Justice, conducted the investigation on two fronts. It covers both Donald Trump’s efforts to stay in power (pressure on officials, alternative lists of uncertified voters) and his actions during the assault on the Capitol.
In the light of the investigation carried out by the elected representatives of the Congress on January 6, the former president risks facing two particularly serious charges, estimates for 20 minutes Bradley Moss, a lawyer specializing in national security issues: “conspiracy to commit fraud at the expense of the United States” and “conspiracy to obstruct official procedure” of Congress. Prosecutors could argue that Donald Trump was at the heart of a conspiracy to “interfere with the functions of government, namely the peaceful transfer of power”. If convicted, he would “risk spending most of the rest of his life in prison,” Moss said.
Is a “seditious conspiracy” charge possible?
A charge of “seditious conspiracy”, in the name of which the founder of the Oath Keepers, a far-right paramilitary group, was sentenced to 18 years in prison, is possible but less likely because it would be necessary to prove that Donald Trump intended to call for violence.
Moss expects ‘concise’ indictment, with charges ‘easiest to prove’, including relying on false statements by Donald Trump’s lawyers in court and testimony before the grand jury relatives of the former president, such as Mike Pence, Jared Kushner or the ex-lawyer of Trump, Rudy Giuliani. Justice also had access to communications from John Eastman, the lawyer at the heart of the campaign to convince Mike Pence not to certify the ballot.
How are Donald Trump’s opponents reacting?
While denouncing judicial “relentlessness”, Ron DeSantis tackled the former president at a press conference, noting during the assault on the Capitol, Donald Trump “was in the White House and did nothing, he should have (call for calm) with more force”. Former prosecutor Chris Christie wants to wait to see possible charges before commenting but reiterated on Twitter that “Donald Trump’s actions on January 6 prove he doesn’t care about our country and our constitution”. Mike Pence, he must speak at the end of the afternoon.
“From a political point of view, these charges have no impact, Donald Trump’s supporters are ready to follow him to the end,” said Republican strategist Barrett Marson. According to him, apart from Chris Christie, the other candidates in the primary “refuse to forcefully attack Donald Trump against the base” Republican.
What might the court calendar look like?
With a possible third trial, we risk witnessing a legal traffic jam. According to Bradley Moss, it is likely that the trial in New York for accounting fraud scheduled for March 2024 will be the first, and that it will be followed by that of the classified documents and then by that, if it takes place, of the Capitol.
What role will the November 2024 presidential election play?
The ballot could be the ultimate justice of the peace, at least for federal court cases. If Donald Trump’s lawyers manage to play for time and he was elected before the trials were held, he – or any other elected Republican – could ask the Justice Department to drop the charges, and he would be safe until 2029. In the event of a prior prison sentence, Trump could also benefit from a pardon. But a president, whoever he is, would have no power over a sentence imposed by a state. If Donald Trump won in November 2024 while being sentenced to prison in New York – or in Georgia, where he could be charged this summer – the United States would go through an unprecedented constitutional crisis.