A subject frequently put on the table during the five-year term, in particular against the backdrop of the health crisis and inflation, unemployment is necessarily essential in this presidential campaign. Is it, in 2022, higher or lower than at the start of Emmanuel Macron’s mandate? And what about the start of the Covid-19 crisis? Are jobs more precarious? Do we work more today?
After checking some of their claims about nursing homes or fuels, 20 minutes was interested in the declarations of the candidates on unemployment.
FAKE OFF
- Marine Le Pen: “The reality is that within 100,000, there are as many unemployed people, as many people looking for a job, as when [Emmanuel Macron] came to power. »
True. In a meeting in Reims on February 5, the candidate of the National Rally minimized the results of the one that the polls designate as her opponent in the second round. According to quarterly data reported by Pôle emploi, there was indeed a drop in the number of unemployed by around 100,000 people between the beginning of 2017 and the end of 2021.
This reduction, which is 102,200 to be exact, concerns the number of unemployed registered in the categories A, B, C. They include people without any professional activity and those who exercise a reduced activity. Behind this overall figure, the decline is marked by the significant decrease in category A unemployed, those who do not have a professional activity. Their number fell by 366,600 during the five-year term. People with partial activity has increased.
- Adrien Quatennens: “You have 80% of the contracts which are signed, perhaps more, less than a month, less than a week, less than a day, which means that you are temporarily out of the unemployment statistics . »
True. Fervent support of Jean-Luc Mélenchon for this presidential campaign, the deputy from the North wants to point the finger at a “complex reality” in the fight against unemployment. The wolf would be the casualization of employment, as he explained on the show We are live on France 2, March 26.
As explained earlier, the overall number of unemployed is falling less rapidly than that of people in part-time employment. This confirms the increase in the use of short contracts. A study by Dares (Directorate for the Animation of Research, Studies and Statistics) published in June 2018 indicates that the share of hirings on fixed-term contracts continues to increase, rising from 76% in 1993 to 87% in 2017. The structure also notes “a sharp increase in very short-term contracts, in 2017, 30% of fixed-term contracts last only one day”.
More recently, Dares pointed out that “in the 3rd quarter of 2021, 82.3% of non-temporary hires were on fixed-term contracts. » And another analysis dated May 2021 notes that the increase in CDD contracts “was driven by CDDs of less than one month, the average duration of CDDs having shortened” between 2000 and 2019. The share of short-term CDDs is therefore important among hires in recent years.
- Emmanuel Macron: “The unemployment rate has reached its lowest level for fifteen years, the youth unemployment rate its lowest level for forty years. »
False. The presidential candidate presented his program on Thursday March 17 during a long press conference in Aubervilliers. He began by touting some of the successes of his tenure, including the drop in unemployment. After this presentation, 20 minutes returned to the sometimes approximate assertions of Emmanuel Macron.
In 2021, 18.1% of young people aged 15 to 24 were unemployed, according to INSEEcompared to 16.3% in 1981. Although the youth unemployment rate has actually been falling in recent years, it has nevertheless fallen below 18% twice since 1981, in 1989 and in 2008.
- Yannick Jadot: “One in two French people who claim their pension rights are no longer working. »
Exaggerated. This is the statement made by the environmental candidate, when the legal retirement age was mentioned on the set of TF1, during the special program France in the face of war, on March 14. Recalling that he does not wish to lower this barrier set today at 62 years.
According to a report from Dares on seniors and the labor market for the last quarter of 2021, “56.2% of 55-64 year olds are employed in the 3rd quarter of 2021”. Another panorama was made by the Dress in 2021 (direction of research, studies, evaluation and statistics). He takes the generation of 1946 as a reference, and explains that “58% of retirees born in 1946 were employed just before retirement”.
Thus, according to the first study, 43.8% of seniors were unemployed at the time of retirement, and 42% according to the second study. Data which is therefore close to “one in two French people who no longer works” at the time of his retirement, announced by Yannick Jadot. However, as the candidate himself points out in his formula, these figures do not only include the unemployed. Also counted are people in a situation of illness, disability or early retirement, and those who have left social systems, and therefore statistics.