War in Ukraine: Russia’s neighborhood is afraid

The people in Russia’s neighboring countries are looking at Ukraine with trepidation: there is great fear that the Kremlin could also intervene in their country. At the same time, they are becoming a place of refuge for many people, including those from Russia.

“Putin kills Ukrainians. Who’s next?” – is written on the poster of a young demonstrator in Georgia’s capital Tbilisi. He expresses the concern of many people in Russia’s neighborhood. Many of the statements and actions by Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin give cause for concern. Putin has also questioned the sovereignty of Kazakhstan. There, as in other countries, there are Russian speakers and holders of Russian passports whom Putin claims to want to protect.

When unrest broke out in Kazakhstan earlier this year, Putin demonstrated his capacity to act by sending security forces there – within the framework of the Collective Security Treaty Organization. Its member state Armenia had hoped in vain for its assistance the year before. Kyrgyzstan also failed to receive the assistance it wanted during the unrest in 2010. In the affected countries, this strengthened the view that Russia primarily uses agreements and organizations to achieve its own goals.

In the war against Georgia in 2008, for example, Russian troops occupied the breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, from where they have been able to exercise military control over the entire country ever since. In 2013, Putin put so much pressure on Armenia that then-President Serzh Sargsyan rejected the association agreement with the EU that had been negotiated – as did then-Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych a few weeks later, which led to the Maidan riots.

fickleness in Tbilisi

Most governments in the region reacted cautiously to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, avoiding direct criticism of Russia. This is reflected in the voting behavior on the UN resolution on the condemnation of Russia in the UN General Assembly. Belarus voted against with Russia. Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan abstained. Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan did not participate. Only Moldova and Georgia voted in favour.

The Georgian government, however, is proving to be fickle. Like Ukraine and Moldova, it too has now applied for EU membership. But to the displeasure of many members of the opposition, the ruling party “Georgian Dream” avoided condemning Russia in a parliamentary resolution. Prime Minister Irakli Gharibaschwili ruled out Georgia’s participation in the sanctions against Russia. In addition, Russian opposition figures and currently the Russian journalist Mikhail Fischman have been refused entry to Georgia by the independent broadcaster Doschd – without giving reasons.

This shows Russia’s pressure potential. It consists not only of the troops in the occupied areas, but also of economic ties: Georgian companies in the infrastructure sector from telecommunications to water supply are in Russian hands; Russia is still an important sales market for Georgian wine and other foods.

Russian troop presence as leverage

The fact that neighboring Azerbaijan, Georgia’s largest gas supplier, entered into a strategic alliance with Russia shortly before the start of the war could prove problematic. The agreement between Putin and his counterpart Ilham Aliyev also includes a statement that both sides will not “engage in economic activities that directly or indirectly harm the interests of the other party.” This could be coined primarily on gas supplies from Azerbaijan to Europe. Shortly before that, EU Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson had campaigned in Baku for an expansion of this in order to become more independent from Russia.

The fact that Azerbaijan agreed to this is partly due to the first point of the agreement: it mentions the recognition of territorial integrity and non-interference in the internal affairs of the other side. Since the end of 2020, Russian troops have also been in Azerbaijan. As “peacekeeping troops” they monitor the ceasefire that Azerbaijan, mediated by Moscow, had agreed with Armenia in the war over the Nagorno-Karabakh region.

For the Armenians, the Russian troops are a guarantee of survival in the conflict with Azerbaijan and its ally Turkey. In view of the massive economic dependence on Russia, the South Caucasus republic’s room for maneuver in foreign policy is minimal. This offers an explanation for decisions by the actually democratically oriented government of Armenia, such as voting against the suspension of Russia in the Council of Europe.

refuge in the Caucasus

For years, people in the region have complained that they feel like pawns in a Russian chess game. The widespread Russian propaganda about the protector from the USA and NATO does not always go against this feeling of being at the mercy. There were also expressions of solidarity with the people of Ukraine in countries such as Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Armenia. In Georgia, thousands march to protest in front of the parliament every day. Relief supplies are also collected there.

Fear of Russian immigrants

At the same time, Georgia is a place of refuge for more and more people from Belarus, Ukraine and now also Russia. The government in Tbilisi spoke of 20,000-25,000 arrivals from the northern neighboring country, but without specifying a period of time. Economy Minister Levan Davitashvili tried to placate the public after opposition figures warned of “hordes of Russians fleeing sanctions”. An appeal on Facebook stated that Russian citizens were not welcome in Georgia. “We don’t want Putin following you here to protect ‘your rights’.” Another appeal speaks of distrust towards all people from Russia.

Opposition politician Helen Khoschtaria was arrested when she spilled Russian ketchup on the steps of the State Chancellery. Former Defense Minister Tinatin Khidascheli accused the exile seekers of running away instead of fighting Putin in Russia.

A group of winegrowers no longer wants to sell wine there as a sanction against Russia. A bank is asking Russian customers to condemn the invasion of Ukraine. The fact that nationalist and racist tones are mixed into the campaigns against Putin and his own government is causing heated debates on social media – including calls for moderation and solidarity with Russian dissidents.

tension and insecurity

Thousands of people from Russia are also arriving in Kazakhstan, Armenia and Istanbul using the few remaining flight routes. There they encounter less resentment than in Georgia, but even there one remembers arrogant and racist behavior towards people from the Caucasus and Central Asia, who mostly work in construction and in the service industry in Russia. In the face of the economic downturn, they will now be able to send less money to their families if they don’t even lose their jobs in Russia.

The depreciation of the ruble will also be felt in countries neighboring Russia, which are already weakened by the pandemic. This will exacerbate social tensions in the region.

With Putin now putting massive effort into the war in Ukraine, however, there are also growing hopes that Russia could take on too much and become weaker in the region. Away from international attention, the military conflicts between Armenia and Azerbaijan are already increasing again. It remains to be seen how operational the Russian troops on the ground will be in the future. There are also isolated calls in Georgia to retake the areas occupied by Russia. For people in the region, used to war and political unrest, this is a new phase of massive tension and uncertainty. Even more people than in previous years could decide to emigrate.