The mutual shelling between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon is becoming increasingly intense. Will the skirmishes soon lead to open war? Answers to the most important questions.
For more than eight months, Israel and the Lebanese Shiite militia Hezbollah have been constantly firing at each other. Recently, the intensity of the fighting has increased significantly. There is great concern about an even larger conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. There are fears that an open war could escalate into a regional conflict, in which the USA, as Israel’s most important ally, would also be drawn in.
What does an open war between Israel and Hezbollah mean?
Experts believe that Hezbollah is significantly stronger than it was during the last major war with Israel in 2006. The militia has years of combat experience in the Syrian war. With Iranian support, it fought alongside the troops of Syrian President Bashar al Assad. Similar to Hamas in the Gaza Strip, Hezbollah has built an underground tunnel system in Lebanon from which the militia could conduct its fighting. Hezbollah has an arsenal of around 150,000 rockets. In the event of war, it could fire thousands of rockets at Israeli cities every day and take out important infrastructure. A hail of rockets could overwhelm Israel’s missile defenses.
Hezbollah can hit almost any target in Israel
“In a war fought ruthlessly, there will be more destruction on the home front and deeper inside Israel,” Israeli Brigadier General Schlomo Bron told the New York Times. Hezbollah could hit more or less any target in Israel, including civilian facilities, “just as we would attack southern Beirut,” he said, referring to neighborhoods in the south of the Lebanese capital that are known as Hezbollah strongholds.
Such a war would have fatal consequences for Lebanon, which is already struggling economically and politically. In the event of a war, the neighboring country would be “taken back to the Stone Age,” Israeli Defense Minister Joav Galant warned last year.
Riad Kahwaji, director of the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis (INEGMA), estimates the balance of power to be in Israel’s favor. “No matter how much damage Hezbollah causes in Israel, the Israelis will cause ten to a hundred times as much,” he says. Hezbollah is not pushing for war, but wants to deter Israel above all. So far, it has kept its attacks within limits.
Nasrallah: Hezbollah will strike back “without restrictions”
If you listen to the Hezbollah Secretary General during his hours-long speeches, you might get the impression that the conflict has long been decided – in favor of his militia. Hassan Nasrallah never tires of emphasizing Hezbollah’s success and the “exhaustion of the enemy.” “If they (the Israelis) impose a war on Lebanon, the resistance will strike back without restrictions, rules and borders,” he warned in his most recent speech on Wednesday evening.
War in the Middle East
People on the run, Israel’s flag on the tank: the invasion of Rafah in pictures
Nasrallah celebrates his “Lebanon Front” for its success, especially because he claims it has led to economic and tourist losses in Israel. He ignores the situation in Lebanon itself. The Mediterranean state, ravaged by crises and corruption, is hardly in a position to wage war. Lebanon is already in the worst economic crisis in its history. In addition, there is neither a president nor a fully functioning government. Kahwaji says a major war would further promote destabilization.
What does Israel want to achieve in Lebanon?
Israel wants Hezbollah militias, who threaten its border area, to withdraw to the area north of the Litani River, 30 kilometers from the border. After the 2006 war, a UN resolution stipulated that Hezbollah fighters were not allowed to stay south of this line. Over the years, however, they have gradually returned to the border area while UN peacekeepers watched helplessly.
Pressure is mounting on the right-wing conservative Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to allow tens of thousands of Israeli refugees to return to their homes. Right-wing Israelis are even demanding that the Israeli security zone in southern Lebanon, which was evacuated in 2000, be re-established to protect them.
US mediation efforts have so far been in vain
US envoy Amos Hochstein has been trying to find a diplomatic solution to the conflict this week during talks in Israel and Lebanon – so far in vain. Nasrallah said that Hezbollah would not stop its attacks on Israel without a ceasefire in the Gaza war. However, the Islamist Hamas is refusing to release the hostages it still holds without an Israeli commitment to a complete end to the war. Israel expects to end its operation in Rafah in the south of the Gaza Strip within a few weeks. By then at the latest, it will probably be decided whether there will be a diplomatic solution to the conflict with Hezbollah or a military conflict.
According to the newspaper Haaretz, Hochstein warned during his talks with the Israeli leadership that a war with Hezbollah could result in a large-scale Iranian attack on Israel.
After Hezbollah attacks: Stern reporter on the last Israelis on the border with Lebanon
01:13mins
Israel’s former national security adviser, Ejal Hulata, also sees the danger of Iran building up nuclear weapons in the wake of the Gaza war. Referring to the Iranian attack on Israel in April, he said: “It would make a dramatic difference if Iran had nuclear capabilities, even if it did not use them. Just the ability to threaten to do so.” Many experts see the Gaza war as just one front in Israel’s larger confrontation with the “resistance axis” led by Iran, which also includes militias in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen.
The role of the powerful Hezbollah ally Iran
Hezbollah in Lebanon is considered Iran’s most important ally. A regional war could force Tehran’s leadership to intensify its political and military support. Influence in countries such as Lebanon or Syria is “strategically vital” for the Islamic Republic, according to a recent article by the think tank “European Council on Foreign Relations” (ECFR). The war in Gaza has further cemented Iran’s strategic mindset. Nevertheless, direct military intervention by Iran in the conflict is considered unlikely. In view of the economic crisis, the Iranian government is also under pressure domestically. A large part of the population accuses the leadership of neglecting urgently needed investments in their own country and instead channeling money to regional militias.
Iran is pursuing a long-term strategy of “ending Israel’s existence as a Zionist state,” said Amos Jadlin, former head of Israeli military intelligence, recently. “It is preparing us for a long war of attrition that is intended to make life miserable for the people here,” he said, “so that the people no longer want to live here.”