FAQ
Status: 08.07.2022 00:58
The Russian troops are advancing in eastern Ukraine – albeit more slowly than planned and with many casualties. What do the territory gains mean and what’s next?
What does the loss of the Luhansk region mean?
In many respects, the fate of Donbass will be decided in Severodonetsk. That’s what Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in early June. Perhaps one of the reasons why the myth that the cities of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk are strategically important has become established in reporting.
“Militarily, the loss of Lysychansk and Severodonetsk means practically nothing,” says Ukrainian military expert Oleg Zhdanov. They are politically important for Vladimir Putin, who can now announce a victory. At least, if the audience is willing to forget that Russia’s war aim was once the capture of the capital, Kyiv.
“The costs for Russia were very high. It’s a symbolic victory,” says Ukrainian military expert Oleksiy Melnyk from the Razumkov Center in Kyiv. Russia has put a large part of its resources of weapons and soldiers in the conquest of the twin cities.
What’s next in eastern Ukraine?
After capturing the twin cities of Lysychanks and Severodonetsk, Russian troops are not far from capturing the entire Luhansk region. Now the focus is on the cities of Slavjansk and Kramatorsk in the Donetsk region. Unlike Lysychansk and Severodonetsk, they are strategically important. Important supply lines for the Ukrainian troops pass here.
How quickly the Russian troops can advance depends on how quickly the Russians can acquire new equipment, says Oleksiy Melnyk. So far, the Russian troops have advanced three to five kilometers a day. “That’s not very fast.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin announced an operational pause. For Melnyk, a sign that Russia had suffered heavy losses in the fighting for Severodonetsk and Lysychanks. “We can say with great certainty that both sides lose about 100 to 150 soldiers on average every day and about 300 to 500 are wounded,” said Melnyk. Military expert Oleg Zhdanov expects a trench war in eastern Ukraine. “As of today, Russia can no longer continue its offensive on Bakhmut or Slavyansk.”
Can there be Ukrainian counter-offensives?
The weekly newspaper The Economist headlined a few days ago that Ukraine is preparing a counter-offensive to recapture Cherson in southern Ukraine. And indeed there seems to have been movement on the southern front for quite some time. However, experts say that Ukraine currently lacks the strength and above all the weapons for a counterattack. “We are now completely dependent on arms supplies from our Western partners,” says Oleg Zhdanov. If the announced weapons reach Ukraine in a timely manner, a counteroffensive could begin as early as August. The soldiers on site report bitter, heavy fighting. Without Western weapons, advances are out of the question, many say.
Should there be a counter-offensive in the south, Ukraine would have to try to cut off the supply lines of the Russian troops, experts say. The Russian troops must be “strategically defeated in order to force them to retreat,” said Oleksiy Melnyk.
The possibilities are definitely there. The terrain near Cherson could enable the Ukrainian troops to encircle the Russians. And already, the Ukrainians are using Western weapons to target and destroy ammunition depots deep in Russian-controlled territory. However, Melnyk considers a storming of Cherson to be less realistic. The city is densely populated and an attack could cause many civilian casualties.
How realistic is the restoration of territorial integrity?
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy wants to end the war by the end of the year. The reconquest of Crimea, which has been occupied by Russia since 2014, and the so-called People’s Republics in the Donbass is also mentioned by many Ukrainian officials as a realistic war goal. But Oleksiy Melnyk considers that unlikely: “I assume that President Zelenskyy spoke more about his wishes and hopes than about actual plans.”
The military expert does not want to venture a forecast as to when the war against Ukraine could end. There are too many factors that could come into play for that. In his view, a peace agreement would be realistic as soon as the pre-February 24 borders were reached again.
Expert Oleg Zhdanov, on the other hand, even sees opportunities to recapture Crimea. There are currently more injured than operational soldiers. “One or two brigades are left of the ground forces. Therefore, the chances of getting to Crimea now are very high.”