Voting in Denmark: election campaign with “security”

The Danes elect a new parliament. The point in time also has something to do with the “mink scandal”, but hardly anyone talks about it anymore. With “certainty” the head of government is struggling for power.

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen looks from the election posters the way politicians look when they want to exude confidence. Smiling and with a steady gaze. In addition, the slogan: “Safe through uncertain times”. Frederiksen can be seen like this everywhere in Denmark. And she emphasized at the start of the election campaign: “This parliamentary election will be an election on the subject of security. Security for the individual, for families, for your finances and your everyday life.”

The 44-year-old social democrat has been in office for three years, has led the country through the pandemic and now wants to convey the feeling that Denmark remains comfortable with her – despite the turmoil in Europe due to the Russian war against Ukraine.

From the point of view of the political scientist Karina Kosiara-Pedersen from the University of Copenhagen, the Prime Minister is setting the framework. “Frederiksen and her government are emphasizing in their campaign that they stand for stability – and are best able to guarantee security.”

A sense of insecurity has also pushed the actual trigger for the early election date into the background. At the beginning of the corona pandemic, Frederiksen had 15 million farmed mink culled because infections had been detected in many of the animals used for fur production and there were concerns about mutations. After the conclusion of an investigative commission, a party supporting the social democratic minority government called for parliamentary elections in the fall – with reference to the lack of a legal basis for the culling.

At the entrance to the University of Copenhagen, a few dozen students are waiting for a campaign debate with leading politicians. The minks are no longer a big issue for them. “The main thing that bothers me is the high inflation,” says 21-year-old Freya Klippman. “Prices are going up everywhere. We younger people in particular are noticing that, but so are pensioners.” Katherine Gribb believes Denmark needs to be more concerned with military security following the alleged attacks on the Nord Stream natural gas pipeline off the Danish island of Bornholm. “We are a small country and should rely more on the EU and NATO,” said the 22-year-old.

Times changed by the Ukraine war and the energy crisis

Lukas Lausen is an advisor to Danish Foreign Minister Jeppe Kofod. The attacks on the pipelines off Bornholm would have brought the war closer to Denmark in general awareness and made clear the dangers of hybrid attacks. “You can tell that times are different for our country due to attacks on the pipeline, supposedly random power outages and drones flying over oil and gas fields.”

Lausen refers to polls according to which around 80 percent of Danes support solidarity with Ukraine and sanctions against Russia. Per capita, Denmark is one of the largest arms suppliers to Ukraine, according to the ministerial adviser. None of the parties fundamentally questioned this course in the election campaign.

The government’s decision in spring to open up the country to Ukrainian refugees, to grant them work permits and to provide them with social benefits is also less controversial. Very different from 2015, when Denmark gradually tightened asylum rules in response to the influx of refugees, reintroduced border controls and established one of the strictest migration policies in Europe, also under pressure from right-wing populist parties.

The issue of migration less important in the election campaign

But that has nothing to do with a fundamental change of course, says political scientist Kosiara-Pedersen. “Many Danes look at refugees from Ukraine differently than at refugees from other regions because the war is happening in Europe.” As a result, the Danes are more open in this case. In the long run, this could possibly lead to a somewhat more differentiated view – for example in the case of labor immigration, says Kosiara-Pedersen. “But the issue of migration is less important than in previous election campaigns.”

According to the polls, the right-wing populists have to be prepared for a rather moderate result. The spectrum is fragmented, the once strong Danish People’s Party has shrunk massively. The newly founded Danish Democrats party could win over many opponents of immigration.

In addition to the Danish perennial issue of health care and the increasing concern about climate change, economic issues rank high in the surveys. As in Germany, it is about the significant rise in energy prices and the current price increase of eleven percent, which is just above the EU average. Frederiksen government has decided to help poorer households. One-off payments for smaller companies are also planned. The bourgeois opposition parties are demanding tax relief and also promise security.

According to polls, the left camp is just ahead

In the most recent polls, Frederiksen’s Social Democrats and their left-wing support parties are just ahead of the bourgeois opposition. Both the top candidate of the Liberals, Jakob Ellemann-Jensen, and the Conservatives, Sören Pape Poulsen, are hoping to inherit Frederiksen.

In the end, former Prime Minister Lars Lökke Rasmussen’s newly formed Moderate party could be the deciding factor. Rasmussen has left the bourgeois-liberal party Venstre in favor of a government across the left-right bloc lines. Prime Minister Frederiksen is also open to this. The Danish party system is very fragmented, two percent of the votes are enough for a seat in parliament.

No deep divisions, but conflicts

Political scientist Kosiara-Pedersen does not expect any distortions in the parliamentary elections. She does not see a deep social divide in Denmark as in other countries. “The welfare state cushions a lot, but not everything. We see that some people are now struggling a lot.” And in the long run this could also lead to more conflicts in Danish society.