How can NATO bring Vladimir Putin to his senses? In search of an answer, Joe Biden has now brought sanctions against the Kremlin boss personally into play. But other measures would really hit him.
Vladimir Putin is said to have massed around 100,000 soldiers on Russia’s western border: tanks, artillery pieces and rocket launchers. The USA and NATO fear an escalation and a Russian invasion of Ukraine. “If he invaded with all these troops, it would be the biggest invasion since World War II. It would change the world,” Joe Biden said of his opponent in the Kremlin last Tuesday.
For two months now, the West has been threatening sanctions if Putin actually decides to take this step. But even if the rhetoric is becoming increasingly sharp, it has not yet had any effect. On the contrary: Putin “continues to expand the troop presence along the Ukrainian border,” Biden said.
Now the US President has indicated that in addition to the ominous economic sanctions the West is threatening, sanctions against Putin himself could also be used. “Yes,” said Biden when asked by a reporter on Tuesday whether he could imagine personally sanctioning Putin in the event of an invasion. “I can imagine that,” Biden continued.
Vladimir Putin wants a place in history
But what effect would sanctions have on Putin as a person? For example, freezing private assets, as in the case of some Russian oligarchs. None at all, says Putin expert Leon Aron. “If Putin has any billions, as everyone is saying, then they are so well hidden that they are safe from any sanctions,” he said, amused by the idea of individual sanctions in an interview star.
The head of the Russian research department at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, DC, has been observing the Russian president and his foreign policy tactics for decades and estimates that the Kremlin boss has a completely different motive at the moment: “Putin doesn’t have money at this stage of his life more important. He already has all his palaces, yachts. He has already bought everything that money can buy. He has already enjoyed all this to the fullest. And he can continue to enjoy life. The palace, that Alexej Navalny presented, nobody will be able to take away from him,” explains Aron his point of view.
But now Putin is on a historic mission. “He is working to secure a place in history for himself: as the man who reunited Russian lands. As the man who brought great power Russia back to life. I think this is of the utmost importance to him personally “Especially given his age and the way he thinks: he’s fighting for a place in history. He wants to be known as the one who made Russia a great power again from the ashes of the Soviet Union.”
The Russian political scientist Leonid Radzikhowsky shares this opinion. For one thing, Putin would rather accept material losses than back down. “On the other hand, Putin knows from previous experience that these sanctions mean nothing terrible for anyone,” he said Interview with “Radio Svoboda”. “Accordingly, these sanctions don’t bother him at all. The only sanctions that would hit Putin really hard would be oil and gas export quotas. But Europe won’t introduce them,” said the political expert.
What would really happen to Vladimir Putin
Aron also sees only two ways of hitting Putin where it really hurts. “There are only two types of sanctions that are actually dangerous for Russia. First: the exclusion of Russia from the SWIFT agreement, i.e. the decoupling from the global payment system. All loans, except those granted by the Russian banks, would be in non-existent in a moment. And for Putin’s oligarch friends, who have long since moved their families to London or Florida, that would indeed be a serious development,” he told the newspaper star.
“Second: An import embargo for Russian oil and gas based on the Iranian model. Half of the Russian federal budget comes from taxes on the sale of oil and gas. An import boycott would be devastating for the Russian economy,” said Aron.
But the White House ruled out these two measures right from the start. “Washington has made a lot of strategic mistakes and this is just one of them. It may be that they are not prepared to impose these sanctions, but why announce them straight away?” Aron questions the strategy in Washington.
“Nord Stream 2 is NATO’s Achilles heel”
The reason why an embargo on Russian oil and gas is not one of the measures that are currently on the table is ultimately to be found in German politics. “Nord Stream 2 is NATO’s Achilles’ heel. This is the reason why it will be difficult to persuade Germany to impose sanctions in this direction at the moment. The project was a colossal mistake by Merkel. And now the German position is only for Putin another signal that he does not have to fear serious sanctions,” explains Aron.
The absence of a strong leader in the EU’s most important country is said to have encouraged Putin’s war game, a number of experts say. Merkel’s departure from politics may have played a central role in Putin’s decision to escalate the Ukraine conflict.
Putin’s current policy is guided by an idea, says Aron. “He doesn’t believe that NATO will impose really dangerous sanctions. And he also doesn’t believe that NATO will really take military action against him.” So far, the disagreement within NATO has proved him right.
In this interview, Aron explains what might have motivated Putin to escalate the conflict and why he sees NATO as a paper tiger.