difficult partnership
Putin and Erdogan meet in Sochi, but there is no bang
Vladimir Putin (right) and Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Sochi.
© AFP
The buzzwords at the meeting of the Russian and Turkish presidents were tough: Syria, combat drones, Ukraine war – but the big bang didn’t materialize, at least for the time being.
Erdogan didn’t seem uncomfortable with the limelight during his visit to Russia. “Now the world is looking at Sochi again,” he said at the beginning of the meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. However, the two heads of state kept to themselves whether concrete results had been achieved and if so which ones. for now. Both countries previously announced that the meeting would focus on current regional and global events. It is expected that in addition to the Ukraine war, the situation in Syria and possibly cooperation with Turkish combat drones would also be discussed.
Turkey and Russia maintain a partnership that is primarily characterized by strategic interests. Daria Isachenko from the Science and Politics Foundation calls it “a very sensitive network of connections”. Turkey depends on grain, energy and tourists from Russia. In 2020, almost 34 percent of Turkey’s gas imports came from there. Russian gas pipelines run through Turkey. Turkey is also not participating in Western sanctions against Russia, which increases the country’s importance for Russian companies, for example.
Erdogan represents “own interests”
The Russian foreign policy expert Alexei Puschkov, for example, praised Erdogan for representing the interests of his own country “in contrast to the euro politicians” and not being afraid of “confronting the collective West.” At the same time, both countries are on different sides in conflicts such as in Syria, Libya or Nagorno-Karabakh, without taking direct action against each other.
This is one of the reasons why Turkey is likely to depend on the green light for another Syria offensive. Hüseyin Bagci, head of the Turkish Foreign Policy Institute, told the DPA news agency that Erdogan traveled to Russia because he had not yet received what he wanted – namely an agreement for another offensive in Syria. The Turkish President has been threatening this for several weeks. Without the consent of Russia – in the Syrian civil war on the side of the regime – Ankara should not dare to take this step. So far, however, Moscow has clearly advised Turkey not to do so.
Turkey argues the offensive is necessary to counter the “terrorist” threat. Observers, on the other hand, suspect strategic electoral action behind a renewed offensive. Analyst Deniz Kalyoncu agrees: “Elections will be held in Turkey in 2023 and the polls say that Erdogan needs a new story to touch people. That’s one of the reasons why he thinks the Syrian mission is so urgent. “
Before the talks began, Putin praised his guest for Turkey’s mediation in the grain crisis, referring in particular to the additional declaration of intent with the UN, which is intended to promote the export of Russian food and fertilizers.
Second meeting within a week
Agricultural exports via the Ukrainian Black Sea ports had recently been blocked for months because of the Russian war of aggression. War opponents Ukraine and Russia signed an agreement separately with Turkey on July 22, through UN mediation, to allow grain exports from Ukraine from three ports.
It is the second face-to-face meeting between the two heads of state within a month. This is particularly remarkable in Putin’s case, since the Kremlin boss, who is increasingly isolated in the world, only conducts many of his conversations on the phone or via video link.
Ankara maintains close ties with both Moscow and Kyiv. Erdogan has sharply criticized Russia’s invasion, but has always emphasized that he does not want to give up any of his partners.
Therefore, one prospective topic of conversation in particular had attracted attention. According to the Kremlin, the meeting should also discuss military-technical cooperation. Moscow recently showed interest in the Turkish combat drone Bayraktar TB2, which was also successfully used by Kyiv during the war. CNN quoted Turk Erdogan as saying that Putin had suggested working with Turkey on the Baykar drones. Should Russia develop the drones together with Turkey, Moscow would also have access to the technology of a NATO member state.
Shortly after the start of the Russian war of aggression, Erdogan said he would not rule out arms deals with Russia. However, Baykar chairman Haluk Bayraktar told CNN International in mid-July that Russia had not been supplied with drones and “never will”. “We support Ukraine.”
Trump had sanctioned Turkey
Arms deals with Russia have brought sharp criticism to Turkey in the past. In 2017, Ankara acquired the Russian S-400 missile defense system. The United States had imposed sanctions under then-President Donald Trump for this reason. Turkey was also excluded from an important armaments project.