Visit to Lithuania: Scholz promotes trust in the East

On his trip to Lithuania, Chancellor Scholz made concrete military promises to the Balts – and apparently gained sympathy. There was no official criticism of Germany’s Ukraine policy.

For Olaf Scholz, his one-day trip to Lithuania is not an easy visit. The Balts have recently criticized the Chancellor’s policy towards Ukraine. The task now is to rebuild trust that has been lost.

The mood in Lithuania is clear: Ukraine should be given comprehensive help – with tanks, ammunition, with air defense, but also politically and humanitarianly. And so the small country in the Baltic States quickly collects millions of euros to buy a combat drone for Ukraine. There are blue and yellow flags everywhere.

The fact that Germany is reluctant to deliver arms meets with little understanding here. Being so close to the border with Russia, there are also demands that Germany – quite specifically – station more soldiers here. The fear of possible Russian aggression among the Balts is firmly rooted.

“Big things in luggage”

Scholz already emphasized in the run-up to his short trip that he expects to be warmly welcomed in the Baltic States. After all, he has big things up his sleeve. The big thing is the amendment to the Basic Law, the additional 100 billion for the Bundeswehr.

For Scholz it is clear that the Bundeswehr is the largest conventional NATO armed force in Europe. It is unclear how he intends to deploy this Bundeswehr on NATO’s eastern borders in Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia.

When Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock was in the Baltics in April, she said that Germany’s security was inextricably linked to the security of the Baltic countries and advocated arms sales to Ukraine. Six weeks later, Olaf Scholz was asked in Lithuania why he and why Germany was hesitating. That Ukraine does not need old weapons from Greece, but modern tanks from Germany.

Clear promise to allies

Scholz does not accept this criticism. It is simply “wrong” that Germany does not support Ukraine sufficiently. Then the Chancellor talks at length about how significantly and far-reaching Germany is helping Ukraine to defend itself, mentioning anti-tank weapons, mortars and state-of-the-art howitzers. “By far the largest conventional NATO army in Europe will do its job,” and to the Balts: “As allies, we will defend every inch of NATO territory.”

The sentence that Ukraine must win this war does not come off Scholz’s lips. But the Chancellor says: “We will do everything to ensure that Russia does not win this war.” Germany would deliver weapons to Ukraine more intensively than almost any other country. In addition, Germany shows a very high financial commitment. One billion was transferred to Ukraine.

Officially no criticism of Germany’s Ukraine policy

That seems to convince the hosts. A lot of praise and kind words for the Federal Chancellor came from the Baltic side today. Scholz’s reassuring words, they work. At least officially there is no criticism of Germany’s Ukraine policy this time.

Visit to German troops

Camp Adrian Rohn on the Pabrade military training area is just under an hour’s drive from the Lithuanian capital of Vilnius. The assembled soldiers don’t seem particularly excited just because the Federal Chancellor is there. The dusty place with what appear to be makeshift barracks is mainly used to practice with tanks and air defense systems.

“Here is mainly shot,” says a German officer. Six weeks ago, Baerbock was already with the troops in Rugla, not far from here, and made clear announcements. If NATO decides to increase it, Germany would station significantly more soldiers here. Brigade strength, that’s up to 5600 people. At the moment, 1,600 NATO soldiers are stationed in Lithuania, including around 1,000 Germans.

German-led “combat brigade”

Scholz also says that the presence of the soldiers on site will be increased. He speaks of a “combat brigade” to be led by Germany. Military training will be expanded here and the troops will be rotated, half in Germany and half in Lithuania. The air defense will also be strengthened.

That was a particularly urgent wish of the Balts. “We’re starting with it now,” says Scholz – and that he also wants to use the 100 billion euros in the special fund for the Bundeswehr for this. But it is also a fact that tripling the number of soldiers stationed in Lithuania is not so easy to implement.

Expanding infrastructure would take years

Up until now – says a Bundeswehr officer – there has been no accommodation for all these people, no infrastructure. Lithuania would have to build this up and that would take years and cost a lot of money.

In the end, after a short six-hour visit to Lithuania, Scholz made concrete military commitments that are vital for the small Baltic countries. It is now important that the German chancellor keeps these promises. So close to the border with Russia, weapons and soldiers speak louder than words.