After the relaxation of the strict zero-Covid measures in China, experts expect a massive wave of infections. The vast majority of China’s 1.4 billion people will eventually contract the coronavirus, according to a government adviser. The former vice director of the national health agency, Feng Zijian, assumes that 80 to 90 percent of the population will be infected with the virus in the end, state media reported on Thursday. “No matter how the measures are adjusted, most of us will become infected at some point.”
In the first wave, the infection rate should reach around 60 percent according to model calculations. “Reasonable measures” must be taken to keep the peak of this wave low and ease the burden on public health, the expert said at an online forum from Beijing’s Tsinghua University. After the recent outbreak in Beijing, hospitals in the capital are currently experiencing a large influx of infected people and a shortage of staff.
“The emergency room is full of patients,” a sister told the magazine Yicai. “Many patients who come to the emergency room turn out to be positive after a PCR test.” It is becoming more and more likely that the staff will become infected. An anesthetist in another hospital reported that the definition of contact person is no longer so narrow there in order to avoid staff shortages due to the isolation required.
Even strict measures can hardly slow down the Omikron variant.
An essay circulating in medical circles says the next month or two will be “the darkest moment” for medical staff, the magazine wrote. “Positive patients are piling up in the fever clinic and there are many complications,” reported an intensive care doctor.
The peak of the wave will put “enormous pressure” on the medical system, warned expert Feng Zijian. Preparations would have to be made. It is also important to speed up vaccinations – especially for older people with chronic diseases. Anyone who is not fully vaccinated should do so as soon as possible. The expert was among eight experts who advised Vice Premier Sun Chunlan last week, before Chunlan spoke of a new stage in the fight against the virus, which is now “less pathogenic”.
After a wave of protests at the end of November against the draconian zero-Covid measures, the government turned around on Wednesday and announced far-reaching easing of lockdowns, quarantine rules, compulsory testing and travel in China. In principle, it should be possible for infected people without symptoms or with a mild course of the disease to go into isolation at home. Even contact persons are no longer threatened with the quarantine camp as before. They should also be able to isolate themselves at home.
Instead of wanting to bring the number of infections to zero with rigorous measures, China will probably try to live with the virus like the rest of the world with these easing. The zero-Covid strategy had caused widespread popular discontent and enormous strains on the second largest economy, while the strict measures against the new, easily transmissible omicron variants of the virus had become less and less effective.
International health experts have repeatedly expressed their incomprehension that foreign mRNA vaccines are still not approved in China. It was also warned that natural immunity among the billions of people is not yet in place, as there have been relatively few infections in China so far. For many Chinese, it has been a long time since the last vaccinations or boosters, which could become a problem.