In Saxony and Thuringia, the CDU and BSW are talking about possible cooperation. Meanwhile, the Union chairmen Merz and Söder are sharpening their tone towards Sahra Wagenknecht. How realistic is a coalition?
Does Sahra Wagenknecht now wear Prada or Chanel? It is a mystery that remains open at least until the end of the CSU party conference in Augsburg. Markus Söder points out that he doesn’t know much about it and looks searchingly into the audience, as if he were hoping that a female delegate would stand up and decide who was right.
Either CDU leader Friedrich Merz, who cheered up the party conference in Augsburg with the sentence “Wagenknecht, that’s socialism in Chanel.” Or Söder, who the day before had also made fun of the BSW chairwoman and her supposedly high-priced clothing, but attributed Prada to her.
The two men may not entirely agree on Wagenknecht’s appearance, but Merz and Söder are otherwise clear in their positions: Sahra Wagenknecht is a communist. A coalition with your party? Difficult. The two party leaders choose clear words. If the CSU party conference had taken place in the summer, the speeches might have sounded different. Now the elections in Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg are history, but nothing has been said there yet.
Peace policy in coalition agreements?
In both Saxony and Thuringia, the CDU is negotiating with the BSW about possible cooperation, also because they have no other choice. But Wagenknecht is making things difficult for the CDU. For example, she wants to include a no to the stationing of US medium-range missiles in the coalition agreements.
The foreign policy positions of the BSW in particular are difficult for many in the Union to bear. That is why a guest article in the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, written by Saxony’s Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer and Thuringia’s CDU leader Mario Voigt together with the SPD Prime Minister Dietmar Woidke, was painful to read for many in the Union. In it, the three politicians advocate peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia.
displeasure about Newspaper article
In some parts the text sounds strongly like the positions of the BSW. Sahra Wagenknecht at least liked the article. She publicly praised him, which caused even more anger in the Union. Many wondered what purpose this name contribution actually had. A kind of compromise offer to the BSW in order to avoid such passages in the coalition agreement?
In any case, people at the CDU headquarters are not very happy about Kretschmer and Voigt’s move, especially since CDU vice-president Kretschmer is already counted. In the state elections in Brandenburg, he publicly called for Dietmar Woidke, i.e. the SPD, to be elected in order to prevent the AfD from becoming the strongest force.
Merz’s patience with Kretschmer seems to have run out: with the plea for more diplomatic relations “the end has been reached,” he is said to have said at the Bundestag faction meeting, according to participants. What exactly he meant by that is not clear. There was no discussion about it. However, MPs in their state groups who meet before the parliamentary group meeting had already discussed it, especially those from the western associations.
Growing discontent in the federal CDU
The group suspects that Merz wanted to forestall Ralph Brinkhaus, his predecessor as group leader during Merkel’s reign. He had previously spoken critically about the BSW and a possible coalition in the two parliamentary group meetings. The tenor: The CDU is more than Saxony and Thuringia.
At the beginning of September, several dozen CDU members came together to form an initiative and called for a resolution of incompatibility with the BSW, including prominent voices such as foreign politician Roderich Kiesewetter. At that time they were largely dismissed by the party leadership.
There are now more and more people asking how one should publicly declare that a coalition with the Left is ruled out, but cooperation with the BSW is possible.
Dwindling legroom
The fact that the mood is changing has probably also reached the Konrad Adenauer House. Meanwhile, Merz repeatedly emphasizes publicly that he considers a coalition with the BSW in Thuringia and Saxony to be very unlikely. Back in the summer, the CDU leader promised the state leaders legroom at a presidium meeting. It is more than questionable whether they will now keep their feet still and forego a coalition with the BSW.
In Thuringia, with the CDU, SPD and BSW, it would only be enough for a kind of stalemate government. There would be 44 members of the government against 44 of the opposition. Without BSW it would result in a minority government in both Saxony and Thuringia. There would certainly be less room for maneuver in the two countries in which the AfD got over 30 percent each.
Ex-CDU leader Kramp-Karrenbauer also lost her office because of the events in Thuringia.
Unhappy memories of Kramp-Karrenbauer
But what influence can the CDU leadership have to avert a CDU-BSW coalition in the states? The fate of ex-party leader Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer is still painfully present for everyone. The “Thuringia debacle” was the headline in the newspapers at the time when an FDP prime minister was elected to office with votes from the CDU and AfD. The CDU chairwoman went to Erfurt at the time, but was unable to prevail against the regional association and ultimately lost her office.
Friedrich Merz certainly has more assertiveness than Kramp-Karrenbauer, but a public break with the Eastern associations cannot be in his interest – especially with a view to next year’s federal election campaign.