Understanding the Gaza Ceasefire: Implications for Israel and Hamas

A fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hamas offers a brief respite amid ongoing conflict, yet long-term peace remains uncertain. While hostages are set to be released, underlying tensions persist, with Hamas likely to frame the ceasefire as a victory despite significant losses. Factors influencing the agreement include Hamas’s isolation, growing pressure on Israeli leadership for a resolution, and the impact of U.S. diplomacy. Reconstruction plans for Gaza are outlined, but questions about governance and future conflicts linger.

The Fragile Ceasefire: A Temporary Respite for Gaza

“No one has triumphed, and the dynamics won’t shift as long as Hamas holds power.” This sentiment resonates deeply with a young Palestinian woman who recently fled from Gaza to Cairo. Seated in a bustling restaurant, she frequently checks her phone for updates on the war that has upended her life. Like many others from the enclave, she sought refuge in the Egyptian capital during the initial months of conflict. When news breaks of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, her initial happiness is clouded by uncertainty about what lies ahead.

The announcement marks a temporary halt to the longest conflict in Israel’s history. In Israel, there is a palpable sense of relief with the impending release of 33 hostages. For Palestinians, the ceasefire represents a much-needed break from the relentless cycle of death and devastation. However, the long-term implications of this agreement remain uncertain. The warring factions have only established a six-week ceasefire, during which they will engage in discussions for a potential second phase aimed at a more enduring resolution.

Challenges Ahead: A Complex Path to Peace

Even if a permanent cessation of hostilities were to be achieved between Israel and Hamas, the underlying tensions between the two parties are unlikely to be resolved. The recent conflict has claimed nearly 2,000 Israeli lives and tens of thousands of Palestinian lives, leaving both sides unable to claim victory.

Israel is now considering an arrangement that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu previously deemed “dangerous.” This agreement aligns with a three-phase strategy proposed by U.S. President Joe Biden in May 2024, which had initially stalled due to Israel’s insistence on strict conditions regarding control over the Egypt-Gaza border. Netanyahu was unable to enforce these demands.

Furthermore, Israel may not fully achieve its stated objectives from the war. Although the hostage situation may be resolved if both parties agree to a second phase, Hamas remains intact. The recent conflict has not succeeded in crippling the Palestinian militant group.

Hamas is likely to present the ceasefire as a victory, a claim that seems particularly cynical given the extensive loss of life in Gaza. Social media was soon flooded with videos of jubilant Hamas fighters celebrating in the streets following the ceasefire announcement.

However, after fifteen months of intense conflict, Hamas’s leadership has been significantly weakened, and the physical landscape of Gaza lies in ruins. Moreover, Israel’s deterrent capabilities in the region have arguably strengthened since October 7, 2023. Should Israeli forces maintain a presence in the buffer zone along the Gaza border, Hamas could even lose some territorial control. The agreement also includes provisions for the release of over a thousand Palestinian prisoners, many of whom may be forced into exile. This hardly represents a classic victory.

One undeniable outcome of the ceasefire is that it will ensure Hamas’s continued existence, as the group will strive to maintain its grip on power. If successful, the Gaza Strip may quickly find itself embroiled in another conflict.

The question arises: what prompted this agreement at this particular moment, especially since it mirrors a plan previously tabled months ago?

Three primary factors appear to have influenced this development: First, Hamas’s isolation has reached unprecedented levels. Following the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, Hamas has not received any backing from the Lebanese Shiite militia. Other groups within the Iranian-led “axis of resistance” are also unable to provide substantial support or pressure on Israel. The sporadic rocket fire from Yemen’s Houthis appears to be ineffective. With its capacity to conduct guerrilla operations diminished, Hamas seems to recognize the limited gains left to pursue.

Secondly, increasing pressure on Netanyahu to reach an agreement has intensified within Israel. Recent surveys indicate that over 70 percent of Israelis favor a settlement with Hamas. Moreover, military leaders have been pushing Netanyahu towards a diplomatic resolution, as further military action in Gaza seems unlikely to yield significant results. For months, the Israel Defense Forces have been engaged in a taxing back-and-forth with Hamas in northern Gaza, making little progress toward dismantling the organization.

Lastly, the influence of Donald Trump likely played a critical role in the negotiations. As noted by Avi Kalo, a former head of the missing persons department in Israeli military intelligence, Trump’s administration exerted considerable pressure on the Israeli government. Following a “tense” meeting between Netanyahu and Steve Witkoff, Trump’s appointed Middle East envoy, a breakthrough in the negotiations was reported. Although Witkoff was not yet in office, he had recently participated in talks in Qatar alongside Biden’s outgoing team.

Kalo acknowledges that while the ceasefire agreement holds promise, its success is not guaranteed. However, it is expected that the incoming U.S. administration will continue to apply pressure on both sides to adhere to the terms.

The final phase of the agreement outlines a reconstruction plan for the devastated Gaza Strip and seeks to establish a post-war governance framework. Yet, questions remain about who will assume control in Gaza following Hamas’s potential ousting. While the immediate violence may subside, the broader conflict between Israel and the Palestinians is far from resolution.

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