Uncertainties around a shooting in Poland and recession in Russia

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news of the day

A missile killed two people on Tuesday in the Polish village of Przewodow, near the border with Ukraine, heavily bombarded by the Russian army. After a period of questioning about its origin and the risks of escalation, Warsaw considered Wednesday “highly probable” that it was an “unfortunate accident” due to a Ukrainian projectile. Same story at NATO, which has “no indication” to attribute the deadly explosion in Poland to “a deliberate attack” against this country, said Wednesday the Secretary General of the Alliance, Jens Stoltenberg.

US President Joe Biden, at the G20 summit in Bali (Indonesia), had previously considered that it was “improbable” that the missile was fired from Russia and assured that he would “determine what happened past exactly. The Kremlin, which denies any responsibility, welcomed the “restraint” of the American reaction. kyiv for its part called on Wednesday for “immediate access” to the site and a “joint examination of the incident”, continuing to evoke Russian responsibility.

sentence of the day

There was yesterday [mardi] a terrible day for Ukraine and the Ukrainian people”

It is a declaration of the French president. Emmanuel Macron called his Ukrainian counterpart on Wednesday after “more than 85 missiles” hit Ukrainian civilian infrastructure on Tuesday. At the end of the G20 summit in Bali, the French president regretted these “terrible” bombings.

The number of the day

-10°C. The coming week will be “difficult” for the inhabitants of the kyiv region in Ukraine, regional governor Oleksiï Kouleba warned on Wednesday, the day after heavy Russian strikes which again damaged its electricity network. “Temperatures are expected to drop to -10°C,” he said as Russian bombardment severely damaged the country’s electricity system.

The trend of the day

Russia has officially entered recession after a 4% decline in its gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter, according to an initial assessment published on Wednesday by the Rosstat statistics agency. The trend, in the wake of an already weighed down second quarter (-4.1%), is largely affected by the effects of the heavy Western sanctions following the invasion of Ukraine.

Analysts, however, expected a more marked fall in the economy between July and September, around -4.5%. The last technical recession in Russia dates back to 2020-early 2021, years marked by the Covid-19 pandemic. The first three months of 2022 had seen Russian GDP grow by +3.5%, but the outbreak of the offensive in Ukraine at the end of February led to a rain of international sanctions and many problems for the Russian economy: imports and exports limited, exacerbated shortage of staff, difficulties in supplying spare parts, etc.

According to a forecast by the Russian Central Bank made on November 8, GDP should contract around -3.5% over the whole of 2022, a far cry from the apocalyptic forecasts envisaged in the spring.

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