Ukrainian Defense Struggles as Russian Forces Assault Velyka Novosilka Frontline City

Recent military developments in eastern Ukraine have escalated, particularly near Pokrovsk, where Russian forces are advancing rapidly, threatening to isolate the city. Key towns like Chasiv Yar and Velyka Novosilka are under increased pressure, with significant territorial losses for Ukrainian defenders. As Russian troops encircle these locations, logistical challenges and chaotic retreats are reported. The situation reflects a troubling shift in the conflict, raising concerns about future territorial ambitions and the legacy of past Ukrainian counteroffensives.

Escalating Military Dynamics in Eastern Ukraine

The military landscape in eastern Ukraine has seen significant escalation in recent days, with defense lines crumbling across multiple front sections. The main focus is on the front near Pokrovsk, where Russian forces have made swift territorial advancements this week, now posing a threat to the city from the west as well. Their objective appears to be isolating Pokrovsk by cutting off its supply routes.

Strategic Losses and Impending Threats

In the wake of these developments, military strategies have shifted in various locations. The small town of Chasiv Yar, which had bravely resisted Russian attacks for the past two years, is now partially under enemy control. This week, Russian troops made rapid gains into the heart of the town, sealing its fate as it lies in ruins.

Another critical location, Velyka Novosilka, situated 110 kilometers to the southwest, is expected to fall even more swiftly. Though less familiar to the Western audience, this town has played a pivotal role in the Ukrainian defense for three years, acting as a barrier against Russian advances in southern Donbas. Following a steady approach, Russian forces have successfully encircled the town from three sides, with the local airport captured over the weekend. The assault on residential zones has commenced, effectively cutting off supply lines for Ukrainian defenders.

Velyka Novosilka’s geographical position, surrounded by three rivers, offers defensive advantages that have now turned into a trap for Ukrainian forces. The crucial road connecting the provincial capitals of Donetsk and Zaporizhia has fallen under Russian control, limiting escape routes. The remaining Ukrainian defenders face the grim choice of fleeing on foot through fields and using makeshift ferries across the Mokri Yali River, leaving behind heavy artillery. Reports from Kremlin-aligned military correspondents indicate that the Ukrainian withdrawal is chaotic and incurs heavy losses, yet resistance persists.

Efforts to provide aid to the encircled troops and establish a retreat have seemingly faltered, as evidenced by footage of a destroyed armored vehicle targeted by Russian drone forces. The current situation mirrors the costly retreats witnessed at Avdiivka last year and Vuhledar in October, where high command delays led to disastrous outcomes.

This has ignited frustration among Ukrainians, who feel that lessons have not been learned. Influential frontline observer Yuriy Butusov has criticized the military leadership, particularly targeting commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskiy and the general overseeing Donbas operations, Oleksandr Tarnavskiy, for perceived blunders.

Regardless of accountability, Russian troops currently enjoy a clear advantage in both numbers and equipment. Following the imminent fall of Chasiv Yar and Velyka Novosilka, they are likely to expand their territorial gains significantly. With minimal geographical barriers north of Velyka Novosilka, an advance through the Mokri Yali valley toward the border between Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk provinces is anticipated, approximately twenty kilometers away.

The accompanying map illustrates the rapid territorial gains made by Kremlin forces in this region since October, with significant strongholds like Vuhledar, Kurakhove, and Velyka Novosilka falling in succession.

Gaining full control over the Donetsk province is among the Kremlin’s primary objectives, and it now seems within reach. An important question remains whether Russian forces will push into Dnipropetrovsk province from Velyka Novosilka, signaling even broader ambitions for territorial expansion.

It is a bitter twist of fate for Ukraine that Velyka Novosilka was once associated with hopeful narratives just a year and a half ago. This location marked one of the three launch points for a major Ukrainian counteroffensive in the summer of 2023, utilizing Western battle tanks for the first time. Newly formed Ukrainian brigades advanced southward from Velyka Novosilka through the Mokri Yali valley, capturing several villages. However, progress stalled after approximately ten kilometers, leading to the counteroffensive’s failure and the loss of all previously gained territory in the valley.

Velyka Novosilka stands as a symbol of the changing tides of war, alongside a remarkable history that is now under threat of erasure. Founded in the late 18th century by Greek settlers from Crimea and nearby coastal regions, the area retains remnants of its diverse heritage. Even as late as the Soviet era, around thirty percent of the population identified as Greek. The echoes of this rich history are still present in place names and the earlier settlement by Crimean Tatars, as reflected in the names of the contested rivers Mokri Yali, Shaitanka, and Kashlagach.

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