Ukraine war
Lysychansk has fallen, Luhansk in the hands of the Russians – what now?
A street outside of Lysychansk. More than half of Donbass is in Russian hands.
© Aris Messinis / AFP
The Luhansk region in eastern Ukraine is now under Russian control. Will the separatists there now declare their independence? For the Kremlin, the conquest is a success, but the price of victory is high.
Lysychansk has fallen, and now the entire eastern Ukrainian region of Luhansk is under Russian control. For weeks, Russian troops and pro-Russian separatists fought for the city of 100,000, but in the end they managed to encircle it. According to the Moscow Defense Ministry, the enemy has been “completely defeated”. Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine, admitted that his country’s armed forces had withdrawn from the city. What does the fall of Lysychansk mean for the progress of the war?
Now Luhansk is in Russian hands
Both Lysychansk and the fallen twin city of Sievjerodonetsk are not very important militarily, but both places are important locations for the chemical industry. What is more important is that with them, the Luhansk administrative unit is in Russian hands. This would allow the separatists there to declare their independence. A goal they have been pursuing since the 2014 war. A connection to Russia would also be conceivable. The conquest of Luhansk brings the Kremlin closer to its goal of taking control of the entire Donbass.
Russia’s victory may have been bought dearly. According to the British BBC, the Kremlin troops are now running out of soldiers and material. The armed forces in the region would consist largely of mercenaries and volunteers. The legionnaires belonged to the private Wagner group, and the regular recruits were poorly trained. Tanks up to 60 years old are also used as weapons. “Russia is now facing new challenges: it controls more than a fifth of Ukraine – but a large part of them are empty cities. Exhausted armed forces have to be replaced, ammunition replenished,” writes the “New York Times“.
Russians are losing territory in the south
Also, the heavy attrition may have tied down or eliminated so many Russian fighters that troops are missing elsewhere. “On the front in the south, for example, they are constantly losing areas,” says the “Spiegel”. In the vicinity of the embattled city of Kharkiv in eastern Ukraine, Ukrainian troops repeatedly manage to take land from the attackers. Volodymyr Zelenksyi has already announced that he wants to regain control of the Lysychansk region. Army tactics and new, improved weapons would contribute to this.
After recent successes, Russia now controls between 50 to 60 percent of the Donbass. Ukrainians expect Kremlin forces to concentrate on the cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. The region is home to the headquarters of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in Donbass. “In the direction of Sloviansk, the Russians are trying to take the towns of Bohorodychne, Dolyna and Masanivka,” the general staff said in Kyiv. Russia has also been targeting the town of Bachmut around 35 kilometers to the east for days, which is an important hub.
Crucial phase also for the West
Though Russian forces may be exhausted, the Ukrainian counter-defense remains dependent on arms supplies from the West. Above all, long-range artillery is likely to be needed, and the leadership in Kyiv has already asked for supplies. However, it is unclear when it can be delivered. The “New York Times” already sees a new, perhaps decisive phase beginning: “The West is now facing a test, not only in terms of military logistics, but also in terms of solidarity. The longer the conflict drags on, the more painfully the citizens feel the consequences and unity among the allies will be more difficult to maintain.”