Ukraine summit: What needs to happen now – and what role the Saudis have

The Swiss conference for peace in Ukraine was a success, says conflict researcher Nicole Deitelhoff. This should also have an impact on Russia. In an interview, she explains which measures would now make sense.

tagesschau.de: There has been much debate in recent weeks about the purpose of the conference in Switzerland. Was it worth discussing it without Russia and China and accompanied by Russia’s maximum demands?

Nicole Deitelhoff: I think the conference was a success. It was not just attended by the “usual suspects” from the West, but there were participants from around 90 countries from all regions of the world.

The fact that they have spoken out in principle in favour of the territorial integrity of Ukraine is a success. After all, more than 80 states have signed the final communiqué, which emphasises the importance of international law, the importance of nuclear safety and the free export of grain.

This is a clear signal that there is international support for a peace process. So the outcome is positive.

“Support in all regions of the world for a Peace Process”

tagesschau.de: Is it not weakened by the fact that not all states have signed the final document?

Deitelhoff: I don’t think so. The conference clearly showed that there is support for a peace process in all regions of the world. We are talking about a start. That is why it is not such a serious matter that some states have not signed.

In the case of some states, such as Saudi Arabia, it seems understandable to me. Saudi Arabia is being considered as the organizer of a future conference and will therefore want to give the impression of being a neutral mediator. For some other states, it was primarily a matter of being present at all, such as Brazil, South Africa and India. They will therefore remain part of this process. That is crucial.

“This makes the Kremlin nervous”

tagesschau.de: The final document calls, among other things, for Ukraine to have control over seaports and nuclear power plants. Both would require Russia to return conquered territory. Do you think that is realistic?

Deitelhoff: Not at present. But it is important that the final communiqué refers to international law and reaffirms it. That there must therefore be no attacks on civilian shipping or civilian ports, and that nuclear safety must be restored.

It is clear that Russia is currently not prepared to give up territorial control over, for example, the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant. But the main thing is that more than 80 states are convinced that Russia should do just that and that this is a violation of international law.

tagesschau.de: Immediately before the conference, Russia demanded exactly the opposite, namely that Russia should gain control over further areas that it has not yet conquered. A tactical move?

Deitelhoff: Putin’s so-called offer was a tactical attempt to weaken Ukraine’s support at the Bürgenstock conference by appearing willing to negotiate while blaming Ukraine for failure. In fact, Putin has not deviated in any way from his original war aims and has demanded that Ukraine cede further, as yet unconquered territories.

The Kremlin knows full well that this is not a realistic negotiating offer. On the other hand, it can be used to take Russia at its word and suggest entering into preliminary talks. Also to make it clear that its offer will not simply be brushed aside, even if it is a feint.

tagesschau.de: Does the conference in Switzerland put pressure on Russia?

Deitelhoff: The hectic reactions from the Kremlin show that Russia is certainly worried about growing international support for Ukraine. This is making it nervous. Otherwise Putin would not have taken the trouble to make this “offer” shortly before the conference. It will impress Russia that the final document was signed by more than 80 states. Whether this will lead to new offers is something no one can say at the moment.

It is now important to continue to work on the many individual questions in smaller meetings with other states. The more concrete this becomes, the more pressure will be put on Russia to respond. It would also be important to continue to try to get the states that did not sign or were absent to support such a communiqué. These are primarily the states of the BRICS group, i.e. South Africa, Brazil, India and of course the elephant in the room: China.

What could Saudi Arabia achieve?

tagesschau.de: Saudi Arabia could be considered as a host for another format. What could the Kingdom do to further develop this process?

Deitelhoff: Of course, we are critical of Saudi Arabia for good reason. But we must recognize that the conflict in Ukraine is viewed by many states outside the global North as a regional, intra-European issue, even if many outside Europe are suffering from it. But in the countries of the South, the view is that the Europeans should solve this, but are unable to do so.

Saudi Arabia has very good relations within the global south, has also joined the BRICS group and could be a kind of hinge to influence other states in the global south and provide them with incentives. In order for a peace process to get underway and to be successful, it is important to be able to signal that the international community wants such a peace process and is prepared to get involved and invest in such a peace process. In the next step, Saudi Arabia can certainly achieve this better than Switzerland.

tagesschau.de: Turkey is mentioned again and again. What does it have to offer?

Deitelhoff: There have already been concrete negotiations in Turkey, shortly after the war began in spring 2022. It has good connections in the Kremlin and knows the challenges in such talks. But in the global south, Saudi Arabia’s credibility is greater. Turkey is, after all, a NATO member.

“Increase trust in the process”

tagesschau.de: What can we learn from those negotiations for future rounds?

Deitelhoff: The lesson to be drawn from this is that the chances of achieving peace in Ukraine through a comprehensive agreement are very slim. At the time, an attempt was made to put together a package, but it failed because of incompatible demands.

Therefore, we must try to implement a policy of small steps by “breaking down” the conflict issues and trying to reach agreements for each area. This has the advantage that it is easier to monitor whether both sides are complying. If not, the process can be interrupted and sanctions can be imposed for violations of agreements.

This provides the means to increase the trust of the conflicting parties, not in each other, but in the process. This is essential, because there is in fact no trust between the two conflicting parties. The step-by-step process would have to be accompanied by security guarantees, so that both states can be sure that failure to comply with an agreement will have consequences.

The interview was conducted by Eckart Aretz, tagesschau.de