Ukraine crisis: War remains “clearly a possibility” – Politics

It was the weekend of telephone diplomacy, both the President of the United States and his colleague from France spoke with Vladimir Putin on Saturday, but that hardly seems to have brought any movement into the Ukraine crisis.

French President Emmanuel Macron spent more than an hour and a half on the phone with his Russian counterpart Putin on Saturday afternoon. The Élysée then announced that Macron had made it clear to Putin that “a serious dialogue is not compatible with an escalation”. And he told him again that the western partners were “determined to act” should Russia take military action against Ukraine.

At the same time, both Macron and Putin expressed their “will to continue the dialogue” in order to implement the Minsk agreements. And to talk about the “conditions for security and stability in Europe”.

Macron then spoke to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. The conversation with Scholz made it possible to confirm the “perfect agreement” between the German and French positions, above all with regard to further action in the Normandy format, it said.

The White House had pushed for Saturday

Shortly after the French president, the American one was put through to Vladimir Putin. Moscow initially suggested next Tuesday as the date for a meeting with Joe Biden, but the White House had pushed for Saturday. If it is true that the US secret services consider next Wednesday to be a possible day X when the Russian attack on Ukraine begins, this wish is understandable: on the eve of the invasion, Putin would hardly be swayed by Biden.

Apparently that wasn’t the case on Saturday either. Biden and Putin had a “professional and substantive” conversation, said a senior US government official after the hour-long phone call. But there was “no fundamental change in the dynamics” of the crisis. There are still no signs that Putin wants to de-escalate the situation, and it is still unclear whether Russia actually has an interest in a diplomatic solution.

What was remarkable, however, was that the US official on Saturday painted a slightly less dramatic picture of how close a Russian attack might be. War is “clearly a possibility,” he said. That didn’t sound quite as alarming as it did on Friday, when Biden’s National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and US Secretary of State Tony Blinken warned that an invasion could begin at virtually any time. The threat is “imminent,” Sullivan said. He urged all Americans in Ukraine to leave the country within 48 hours. The American staff of the OSCE observer mission in Ukraine were also called upon to do the same.

The President of Ukraine does not want to incite fear with too much information

This drastic warning from the US government was met with skepticism by European governments and open opposition in Kiev. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called for calm. He did not see any information that indicated an imminent attack, he said. “Too much information” about a possible beginning of the invasion should not unnecessarily stir up fear.

Whether the slightly toned down wording from the White House on Saturday was a conscious decision, whether it is based on new, more optimistic intelligence, or whether Friday’s surprisingly harsh warnings were an attempt to rouse Putin is difficult to say with certainty.

The long table was part of the Covid protocol

A small detail that could indicate that the US government is not yet expecting a Russian attack in the coming days could be an email that the White House sent out about an hour after the phone call between Putin and Biden. It announced that Biden would travel to Ohio on Thursday to promote his infrastructure package there. This appointment can of course be canceled at any time. But one can assume that the US President would not publicly announce a visit to Cleveland if he were certain that a major war would break out in Europe the day before.

At least one minor but much-discussed fact about Emmanuel Macron’s recent visit to Moscow has been satisfactorily clarified. Photos from the Kremlin had shown Putin receiving the French president at a six-meter-long white table. There had been much speculation about the symbolism of the extreme distance between the two heads of state. Now the Kremlin spokesman said the long table was part of the Covid protocol.

The large safety margin is maintained when Putin’s interlocutors stick to “their own rules.” In other words: Macron had not done an additional PCR test before he sat down at the table with his counterpart. The French Élysée confirmed the information that the Russian authorities had rejected additional tests because they were “not compatible with the French President’s tight agenda”. As a further justification, a French government official told the Reuters news agency that Russia could not have gotten Macron’s DNA via the PCR test. So “the other option suggested by the Russian protocol” was chosen – the long table.

.
source site