“No”, Ukraine won’t get American fighter jets: US President Joe Biden gave Ukraine’s demands a dry, narrow “No” on Monday F-16– Fighter jets given a refusal. Now not only the Ukrainians but also the Europeans are wondering how Biden meant that.
Biden’s “no” seemed like a casual response to a reporter’s question. But does that mean that the US President is only saying no at this point? Or definitely? Or would the no only apply to fighter jets that would be supplied directly by the US, but not to American-made jets that could be exported to Ukraine from other countries?
Shortly thereafter, John Kirby of the National Security Council spoke up. The US has already sent a lot of weapons, Kirby said, pointing to the 31st abrams-Battle tanks that the White House has just declassified. Ukraine is getting everything it needs to get through the winter and fend off a major Russian offensive expected in the spring, Kirby said.
Biden is not braking for the first time
However, behind the scenes, other officials in the US administration objected that F-16-Jets have not even been seriously discussed at the highest level. That would rather suggest that Biden is ruling out their delivery for now.
Biden has done this several times before for other weapon systems, from rocket launchers Himars about the missile defense system patriot until recently to the battle tanks. Biden kept applying the brakes to ensure all NATO partners were moving in step. Biden also wants to avoid the United States becoming too deeply involved in the conflict too quickly. Domestically, he would probably have to reckon with significantly more resistance if he promised Ukraine stronger and more expensive weapon systems every week. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy had repeatedly insisted on thisthat his country also needs long-range fighter jets and missiles to respond to Russian attacks from far behind the front lines and launch successful counter-offensives.
After several countries, including Germany and the United States, promised to supply battle tanks to Ukraine last week, there is now a heated discussion about the extent to which the western alliance will respond to the other calls for help from Kyiv. Former Ukrainian Ambassador to Germany and now Deputy Foreign Minister of Ukraine, Andriy Melnyk had recently also demanded submarines and warships from Germany. Ukraine itself has practically no navy.
Scholz warns of “outbidding competition” in terms of arms deliveries
As far as is known, ships are currently not a topic of negotiation, and Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) had also ruled out the delivery of combat aircraft to Ukraine. When asked during his trip to South America, he warned in Santiago de Chile against “entering into a constant outbidding competition when it comes to weapon systems”. According to the Ukrainian Ambassador to Germany, Oleksiy Makeyev, Ukraine has not yet officially requested fighter jets from Germany. His predecessor Melnyk, on the other hand, claims on Twittersuch an application had already been made on March 2, 2022.
Allegedly, the Ukrainian Air Force would use aircraft of the type anyway F-16 prefer that Germany does not have at all. A comparatively large number of these fighter jets are in use worldwide, which would simplify the question of availability and logistics. At the moment, the Ukrainian Air Force mainly flies old Soviet aircraft, such as the type MiG-29. However, there is hardly any replacement for these. As with other weapon systems, the Ukrainian Air Force will sooner or later have to switch to Western systems.
Unlike the Chancellor and the US President, French President Emmanuel Macron did not rule out the delivery of fighter jets to Ukraine. “Basically, nothing is forbidden,” he said on Monday in The Hague, but made conditions: The weapons should not have an escalating effect and should not be used on Russian territory.
Modern fighter jets could also help with counter-offensives
How applicable such conditions will be to the reality of the war in Ukraine remains to be seen. Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov was expected to hold talks in Paris on Tuesday, including on the delivery of aircraft. From the Russian side, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov announced on Tuesday somewhat contradictingly that the arms deliveries from the West would lead to an escalation of the war, but would not affect its course.
Ukraine has consistently stressed the need for aircraft and long-range missiles to defend against ongoing Russian missile attacks. These are often launched from ships in the Black Sea and from aircraft in Russian and Belarusian airspace. According to the Ukrainian ambassador to Germany, fighter jets could also help intercept Russian missiles.
According to experts, aircraft are just as important for counter-offensives if the Ukrainian army wants to be successful in the so-called combined arms battle. This means the combination of different types of weapons such as tanks, artillery and aircraft to ensure maximum effectiveness and the best possible protection for all deployed forces. In fact, many weapon systems are like that leopardmain battle tank, now to be delivered to Ukraine, designed for such use in combination with other systems.
The Russian army had great difficulties in coordinating its various branches of arms during its attack on Ukraine almost a year ago. It is unclear whether Russian troops are now capable of such complex combat operations. Should the Ukrainian army succeed in such a combination of its forces, it would be a great advantage on the battlefield.