Turkey: Erdogan prefers presidential elections

President Erdogan is bringing forward the elections in Turkey. Parliament and the President are to be voted on again on May 14th. Erdogan’s own candidacy is legally controversial, and his re-election is uncertain.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has announced that the presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for June will be brought forward to May 14. He thanks God that he will contest the election, which will take place on May 14, with the first-time voters as companions, Erdogan said at a meeting with young voters in western Turkey’s Bursa, according to the state news agency Anadolu. It was “not an early election,” said Erdogan. The next parliamentary elections in Turkey were officially scheduled for June 18th. The Turkish head of state has now explained that an agreement has been reached with the coalition partner to adjust the schedule so as not to disrupt the dates for the school exams.

Erdogan had already brought May 14 as the election date into play on Wednesday. A possible runoff election would then take place two weeks later. The elections are seen as a test for Erdogan, who has been in power for 20 years: he was elected prime minister in 2003 and has been president since 2014.

Erdogan’s re-election uncertain

According to polls, Erdogan’s re-election is anything but certain. He and his governing coalition are under pressure primarily because of high inflation. In polls, Erdogan’s governing party AKP with coalition partner MHP does not currently have a majority.

Early elections can be ordered either with 60 percent of the deputies’ votes in Parliament or by decree by the President. In parliament, Erdogan’s ruling Islamic-conservative AKP, together with its ultra-nationalist partner MHP, currently only has a simple majority.

With his statement, Erdogan now made it clear that he is aiming to bring the election forward on his own. Erdogan is likely to further fuel a discussion about his renewed candidacy: The opposition argues that Erdogan – who had already been elected president in 2014 and 2018 – is not allowed to run for a third time according to the constitution. A third candidacy is only envisaged if Parliament forces early elections.

Opposing candidates have not yet been determined

According to the government, nothing stands in the way of Erdogan’s candidacy. She counters that Erdogan was elected the first president in a new presidential system in 2018 after a constitutional amendment. So his previous tenure doesn’t count. Constitutionalists are also divided on the issue.

It is not yet clear against whom Erdogan will compete. An opposition alliance of six parties has not yet nominated a candidate. The pro-Kurdish party HDP, currently the third strongest party in parliament, is not part of the alliance and could put forward its own candidate.