Many in Germany are anxiously watching the upcoming U.S. presidential election, with Democrat Kamala Harris receiving more favorable sentiment than Republican Donald Trump. Concerns revolve around Trump’s past disregard for Europe and the uncertainty of his policies if elected. As polls show a tight race, there is a consensus among German politicians that regardless of the outcome, Europe needs to invest more in its own defense. The article highlights both the challenges and geopolitical implications of the election results, particularly regarding U.S.-European relations and responses to China.
Many in Germany are watching the U.S. presidential election with concern and tension. Democrat Kamala Harris enjoys significantly more support than Republican Donald Trump. Much is at stake.
When it comes to Donald Trump versus Kamala Harris, most German politicians have clear preferences regarding the U.S. presidential election. “It’s about who would be better for Germany and Europe,” states Omid Nouripour, co-leader of the Green Party.
Trump has repeatedly expressed his disdain for Europe, including threats that countries not meeting NATO’s two percent defense spending guideline could not rely on U.S. protection.
The main uncertainty revolves around which of Trump’s promises and threats he would act on if he were to win the White House again. Nouripour admits he feels somewhat uneasy: “What does he mean—he will end the war in Ukraine in a day? What does he mean—he will immediately resolve the Gaza conflict? We simply don’t know.”
Tina Hassel, ARD Brussels, on foreign policy expectations for the U.S. election
One week before the U.S. presidential election, Harris and Trump are nearly tied in the polls. It’s shaping up to be a competitive race.
Europe Needs to Step Up
With Harris, there is a clearer understanding of her positions. However, her presidency is also likely to change the dynamics between Berlin and Washington. Although she is seen as a transatlanticist, CDU foreign policy official Norbert Röttgen notes that European security may not necessarily be her priority. “That won’t be the case, and it has consequences for us in Europe and Germany.”
Defense Minister Boris Pistorius is also convinced that U.S. commitment to European security will diminish. The real question is whether this reduction will be significant or only marginal.
Regardless of whether it’s Trump or Harris, Europeans will need to invest more in their own defense. SPD politician emphasizes that everyone should be aware of this necessity.
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Many Discussions, Few Decisions
However, the notion of “becoming clear” has its challenges. For years, Europe has debated the need for increased investment in its own security. Yet, little progress has been made, critiques Nico Lange from the Munich Security Conference. Although the EU now has a defense commissioner, the role lacks adequate funding and authority.
Long-term funding is also scarce in the German budget. Even the agreed NATO goal of spending two percent of GDP on defense is at risk. CDU foreign politician Jürgen Hardt emphasizes that this is only the baseline. He can already hear Trump’s brash remarks.
Trump seeks to return to the White House and threatens German companies with tariffs during the campaign.
Pushing for Trump
Trump’s penchant for division and provocation, along with his tendency to ignore agreements and impose tariffs, raises concern among many politicians in Berlin. However, not everyone shares this sentiment. AfD co-chair Alice Weidel stated this summer that she wants to root for the Republican, as Trump has promised to end the war in Ukraine by cutting off financial resources.
While BSW leader Sahra Wagenknecht also wishes to end the war, she does not support Trump, citing his unpredictable nature as dangerous. As for Harris, she continues to push a war agenda.
Harris has repeatedly stated her intent to support Ukraine throughout her campaign. How far this support will extend remains uncertain. It is clear that Europe cannot compensate for the U.S. contribution.
The U.S. is faced with a choice between freedom and chaos, Harris stated during her initial campaign appearance.
China as a Key Concern
Additionally, there’s China. For the U.S., the People’s Republic represents the greatest foreign policy challenge—particularly in geopolitics, high technology, and trade.
A tough stance on Beijing is a bipartisan consensus in Washington, which could pose problems for Germany given its economic dependencies on China. “This is definitely a top issue in transatlantic relations,” says Michael Link, the German government’s Transatlantic Coordinator.
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Balancing Hope and Anxiety
Whatever the outcome, Link advocates for maintaining a calm demeanor and focusing on interests-oriented collaboration.
Few in Berlin feel adequately prepared for the new dynamics in transatlantic relations. Too