It should be accessible, uncomplicated, uniform. Politicians had repeatedly described the Deutschlandticket as a small revolution for local transport. Then the introduction was delayed for months, social organizations criticized the price, environmental groups were skeptical whether people would really be persuaded to switch to buses and trains. Volker Wissing, Minister of Transport (FDP), nevertheless spoke of a transformation of mobility at the introduction. Germany ticket, that sounds big.
Now, around 50 days after the introduction of the offer, questions arise: Was the ticket able to keep its promises? Who drives it? Who does not? And is that a good thing now?
At its annual conference in Leipzig, the Association of German Transport Companies (VDV) took stock of the Deutschlandticket. With the offer, which has already sold millions of times, local transport can be used throughout Germany for 49 euros a month. The transport company is actually proud of it. But they also recognize regional differences in the density and quality of public transport. Depending on where you live, the Deutschlandticket is not the same as a Deutschlandticket. Or as Ingo Wortmann, president of the association, puts it: “We have to have the right offer for the ticket.”
Around eleven million subscriptions have been sold to date. The majority of these sales went to two groups: Firstly, to regular Deutsche Bahn customers, i.e. customers who already had other subscriptions and switched to the cheaper offer. They make up a little less than half of total sales. The second group consists of subscribers who have used public transport from time to time in the past and are now switching from more expensive – and therefore also high-revenue – ticket offers to the cheaper subscription. Just a little less than a tenth of the Germany tickets sold went to new customers who have hardly ever traveled by bus or train.
Now, of course, some are wondering whether the Deutschlandticket might not be able to make the hoped-for switch to bus and train. As some critics had feared. Basically, explains Ingo Wortmann, the ticket works in two directions: on the one hand, it encourages more frequent use of public transport, on the other hand, it provides financial relief for commuters. “If demand continues to develop like this, then we will achieve the sales figures forecast by the industry in the near future,” said the VDV President.
The ticket is available in the app, in chip card format or on paper.
(Photo: Boris Roessler/dpa)
Already at the start of sales, the VDV and Deutsche Bahn had declared that they did not expect a sudden increase in new customers or suddenly overcrowded trains. Unlike the nine-euro ticket, for example, the Deutschlandticket was designed to be permanent from the start. Sales are currently increasing, and more subscriptions are also expected, for example among students, the effects of word-of-mouth propaganda and fluctuations. From October onwards, people are preparing for a wave of new subscriptions, because many will then switch from bicycles to public transport for autumn and winter. Conversely, you can count on layoffs from April. In the future, around 17 million people in Germany will use the tariff, according to the VDV and Deutsche Bahn forecasts in May.
Up until now, the main reasons for buying the Deutschlandticket have been its nationwide validity and the price. This emerges from the first figures of a nationwide accompanying market research by the VDV on behalf of the federal and state governments. Around a fifth cited environmental protection as the reason for their purchase. A little less also stated that they deliberately avoided car journeys with the ticket.
About a tenth of those who did not buy a Germany ticket did not do so because of the price. Six percent stated that they could not afford the 49 euros. The most common argument against the purchase, however, is the lack of need: For many of these people, the ticket does not seem to be worthwhile. For example, because they live in rural areas.
“In the countryside, the ticket is sometimes hardly used,” says Wortmann, who is also the head of the Munich Transport Company (MVG). From rural areas in Bavaria he keeps hearing the accusation that the Deutschlandticket is an offer for people from Munich, Würzburg and Nuremberg. According to the VDV, in order to win new customers in rural areas, not only price impulses are needed, but also an expanded offer, in rural areas as well as in cities.
There will be no money to expand public transport by 2025
It takes more money for that. More precisely: 48 billion. According to an expert report, this is the sum that local transport companies will need by 2030 to modernize vehicles, staff and infrastructure and thus achieve the EU climate targets. In the meantime, inflationary costs are likely to be far higher. Because of the pandemic and because of the war in Ukraine, investments in local transport are no longer a priority anyway. According to the VDV, the federal government does not want to discuss them until next year.
“In Munich we have postponed all expansion scenarios until 2025 because we simply don’t have the money to expand public transport until then,” says Wortmann. This is the case with many transport companies. Some are even considering reducing supply. “We cannot offer a new ticket and cut the offer due to lack of funds.”
What that means for the future of the offer is still unclear. Just this much: there is a reason that the transport minister is talking about a Germany ticket and not a 49-euro ticket – the name of the latter would have to be changed if the costs were to increase. A cost increase is usually reacted to with a tariff increase, says Oliver Wolff, General Manager of the VDV. The currently valid introductory price could be increased, but Wolff does not initially assume this.
At the moment, the financing of the Deutschlandticket is only secured until the end of the year, says Wortmann. It is not known whether the ticket can be offered from next year. One wants that, says Wortmann. Now you need reliable commitments from politicians.