Islamist fighters from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham have made significant territorial gains in Syria, taking control of Aleppo and advancing in Hama province. Despite temporary resistance from government forces, the insurgents are pressuring President Assad’s regime. New factions, including the Turkish-supported Syrian National Army and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, have entered the conflict. Russia has resumed airstrikes on HTS positions, while external support for the rebels remains uncertain, with Turkey possibly backing their efforts against Assad.
Recent Territorial Gains by Islamist Rebels in Syria
Over the weekend, the Islamist fighters of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) made significant advancements in Syria, seizing control of additional territories. Currently, they dominate a substantial portion of Aleppo province, with the city itself falling under their control. The Syrian army formally declared its withdrawal from Aleppo on Saturday.
New Developments in Hama Province
In the western region of Hama, the rebels have initiated a second front in their campaign. Activists reported that, by Saturday evening, they had captured at least eleven strategic locations, enabling them to establish a corridor that connects their stronghold in Idlib to the southern city of Hama. Although President Bashar al-Assad’s forces managed to momentarily halt the rebels’ progress in Hama, the swift territorial gains by the insurgents are increasing pressure on Assad’s regime and its allies, which include Russia, Iran, and the Lebanese Hezbollah. Meanwhile, speculation about a potential military coup in Damascus remains unverified.
Additionally, two new factions have joined the conflict: the Turkey-supported Syrian National Army (SNA) and the Kurdish-Arab coalition known as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Both groups are active in northern Aleppo province, targeting areas under regime control. While the SNA appears to collaborate with HTS, it remains antagonistic towards the Kurdish-dominated SDF, with reports of clashes between the two forces, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.
In response to these developments, the Syrian army announced plans for a counteroffensive to reclaim lost territories, with Russian support. Since intervening in 2015 to assist Assad, the Russian military has maintained a presence in Syria. Recently, the Russian Air Force has resumed airstrikes against HTS strongholds in Idlib and the newly acquired territories, marking the first bombings of Aleppo since 2016, when intense battles forced the rebels out of the city.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reports that the last five days of fighting have resulted in 372 fatalities, including 210 rebels, 114 government soldiers, and 48 civilians, most of whom perished due to Russian aerial attacks.
The ongoing rebellion against Assad is primarily spearheaded by the jihadist group HTS, which the USA categorizes as a terrorist organization. This group has gained control over significant areas in northwestern Syria, remaining the last major rebel bastion not reclaimed by government forces in recent years. The recent offensive against Assad, which began unexpectedly on Wednesday, has taken many observers and the regime itself by surprise.
The timing of this assault seems to exploit the perceived vulnerabilities of the Damascus leadership, which is considered weakened after nearly fourteen years of civil war. Additionally, Assad’s allies face their own challenges: Russia has decreased its military presence in Syria following its aggression against Ukraine, Hezbollah has been significantly weakened by its prolonged conflict with Israel, and Iran has also sustained serious setbacks in its military engagements with Israel.
At present, none of these three allies appear willing or capable of bolstering the Syrian regime effectively.
It remains uncertain if the insurgents are receiving external support. The USA has denied any involvement with HTS or the recent offensive. However, Turkey is viewed as a potential supporter, motivated by dual objectives: undermining Assad’s regime and countering Kurdish militias.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has expressed intentions to repatriate a significant portion of the over three million Syrian refugees back to their homeland, to which Assad responded by insisting on Turkey’s withdrawal from northern Syria. Simultaneously, Turkey has been engaged in a prolonged struggle against Kurdish forces in Syria, often leveraging the SNA it backs.
In recent years, the Syrian civil war has seen a decrease in intensity across many regions. Assad had managed to control approximately two-thirds of the country; however, vast areas remain devastated, with widespread poverty and rampant corruption. Western nations have withheld reconstruction assistance as long as Assad remains in power, while Russia and Iran provide ongoing military support without committing to rebuilding efforts.