Political tensions are escalating over the upcoming social security budget, with the National Rally halting discussions with the government. Marine Le Pen criticized the government’s refusal to amend the draft law, asserting a firm demand against pension de-indexation. The far-right party seeks further concessions, heightening the risk of a censure motion if the Prime Minister invokes Article 49.3. The government aims to save 60 billion euros to reduce the deficit, facing potential defeat if opposition parties unite.
Political Tensions Rise Over Social Security Budget
On Sunday evening, the tension surrounding government censorship led by Michel Barnier escalated, as the National Rally announced that discussions with the executive regarding the upcoming social security budget had come to a standstill. This budget is set to be presented to the National Assembly on Monday.
In a charged political atmosphere, the Prime Minister’s team assured that he remains “open to dialogue,” a stance he has maintained since the onset of these discussions.
Marine Le Pen Intensifies Pressure
Marine Le Pen, the leader of the RN deputies, raised the stakes ahead of this crucial parliamentary session. She stated, “The government has made it clear that it does not wish to alter the PLFSS (draft law on the financing of social security), and we have taken note of this.” Her comments came after Minister of Public Accounts Laurent Saint-Martin indicated in an interview with Le Parisien that the draft was no longer open to amendments.
Le Pen criticized what she termed as an “extremely closed and sectarian behavior” from the government, while subtly hinting at the censorship threats that have loomed over Michel Barnier for weeks. As the largest political faction in the National Assembly, the far-right party holds the power to destabilize the government if it backs a motion of censure that the left plans to propose should the Prime Minister invoke Article 49.3 of the Constitution.
The RN is pressing for further concessions from the government, particularly concerning pension adjustments. Despite this, the executive retains the authority to amend the budget until the final moments before the Assembly convenes at 3:00 PM.
Jean-Philippe Tanguy, a deputy from the RN, asserted a firm “absolute red line,” insisting that the government must abandon its plan for the partial de-indexation of pensions relative to inflation. He emphasized, “This is a social contract between contributors and society as a whole.”
After successfully negotiating the abandonment of a tax increase on electricity and securing concessions on State Medical Aid (AME), the RN is also seeking a reversal on the non-reimbursement of certain medications.
The social security budget, which the Assembly is tasked with voting on, contains multiple contentious issues for opposition members, both from the left and the right. Should the Prime Minister lack a majority, invoking Article 49.3 to pass the budget without a vote could lead to a censure motion being put forward as early as Wednesday.
Should the left and the National Rally unite in their opposition, the government could face a significant defeat—marking a historic moment since the fall of Georges Pompidou’s government in 1962. The left has already indicated its readiness to support a censure motion, condemning the government’s reliance on the RN’s support.
Marine Tondelier, the leader of the Ecologists, remarked, “Marine Le Pen shows Michel Barnier daily which side he is on. The macronists will face defeat and dishonor.”
If the Prime Minister opts not to use Article 49.3 and the budget is rejected, it would necessitate a new round of parliamentary discussions. The RN has preemptively warned of a convoluted constitutional situation that could result in prolonged debates, potentially leading the government to legislate by ordinance after 50 days of the budget submission.
Currently, Parliament is examining three budget texts: the 2025 state budget, the social security budget, and the draft law for the management of the current fiscal year. Each of these texts carries the potential for censure.
The government aims to save 60 billion euros to bolster public finances and reduce the deficit from 6.1% of GDP in 2024 to 5% by 2025.