Friday April 28, 2023
With climate change, the risk of heat extremes is increasing. According to a new study, these can also occur in regions that have so far been spared. Unexpected temperature records would hit the people on site if they were not prepared – with fatal consequences, the scientists warn.
The shocking heat records of the past year make the consequences of climate change clearer than ever. In some parts of the world, temperatures have never reached levels previously thought possible. However, climate experts warn that this is only the beginning. In many regions of the world, heat waves are likely to be far more extreme than before – and possibly claim significantly more victims, according to a current study in the specialist journal “Nature Communications”shows.
For their analysis, a research team led by Vikki Thompson evaluates global weather data from 1959 to 2022 using climate models. The scientists from the University of Bristol were thus able to estimate how likely it is that extreme weather events from the past will repeat themselves. For example, they calculated in which regions the temperature records measured in the past will be broken in the near future.
The result: According to the study, the hotspots of heat extremes include less developed regions with high population densities and already relatively hot climates such as Afghanistan, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras or Papua New Guinea. Because there is a lack of means and money for adaptation measures in these countries, the people there are particularly at risk in the event of an extreme heat wave.
But some industrialized countries could also experience momentous records of the century in the near future, including Queensland in Australia, eastern Russia, the greater Beijing area and central Europe. New heat extremes are also to be expected in Germany, the Netherlands and Belgium. However, as highly developed industrialized countries, there are more heat protection plans that mitigate potential effects, the scientists suspect.
Heat waves can happen anywhere
The British researchers were also able to use the data to show where statistically improbable extreme weather events have occurred in the past: in almost a third, i.e. in 31 percent of all regions examined, at least one such event has occurred in the past 60 years. These temperature records were so extreme “that seemed impossible until they occurred,” writes study author Thompson. She and her team could not identify a temporal or spatial pattern.
“It seems that such extremes can happen anytime and anywhere,” the scientists sum up. “Therefore, all regions must be prepared to experience a heat wave that, based on previous observations, did not appear plausible there.” Because temperature records could have serious impacts on society and the environment, especially if they hit regions unprepared – such as western North America in 2021.
The extreme heat wave in Canada and the USA is considered by experts to be a millennium event (PDF). It resulted in some of the highest temperatures ever recorded in the region, including the highest temperature ever recorded in Canada: 49.5 degrees. In British Columbia alone, at least 719 people died suddenly within a week, three times the average. In the previous three to five years, there had only been three heat-related deaths in the Canadian province. And it is estimated that more than 200 people died in the USA as a result of the extreme heat.
“Being prepared saves lives”
“As heat waves become more common, we need to be better prepared,” study author Thompson said in a statement University notice quoted. “Some regions that we have identified have rapidly growing populations, others are developing countries, and still others are already very hot. We therefore have to question whether the heat action plans there are sufficient.”
And co-author Dann Mitchell is also convinced: “Being prepared saves lives.” Some of the most surprising heat waves have resulted in tens of thousands of heat-related deaths around the world. According to Mitchell, however, forward planning can reduce the mortality rate from climate extremes. So has the Heat wave in Europe 2003 According to estimates, up to 70,000 people died and caused economic damage of around 13 billion euros. “Subsequent policy responses and heat protection plans resulted in fewer deaths during a summer of similar proportions in 2006,” the study said.
Spain had also drawn up a national heat protection action plan at the time. This will probably be used particularly early this year. Because parts of Spain are already groaning under unusually high temperatures – and that in April. “It cannot be ruled out that 40 degrees will be measured somewhere in the Andalusian hinterland on Friday,” meteorologist Miguel Ángel Viñas told the newspaper “La Vanguardia”. According to the Spanish weather authority, April records were already broken this week before the heat peak in several Andalusian cities: For example in Córdoba, where the previous high of 34.0 degrees on Tuesday was clearly exceeded with 35.1 degrees.
According to experts, the rest of Europe also has to prepare for another hot summer. According to that European climate monitoring service Copernicus temperatures are rising twice as fast as the global average and faster than on any other continent. According to the average of the last five years, the climate in Europe is now about 2.2 degrees warmer than in the pre-industrial period (1850-1900). Given this trend, heat waves are becoming increasingly likely and extreme.