For a long time, it was said that there were too many people for too few resources. That could soon change. Forecasts predict a dwindling world population. What sounds like good news can lead to massive problems.
Vinice was born shortly after midnight. Her birth had been without complications. But her parents, Maria and Vincent Villorente, were not holding just any baby in their arms. The United Nations had declared November 15, 2022, to be the day on which humanity reached eight billion for the first time. This was the result of statistical calculations, and so an official welcoming committee was already waiting and presented little Vinice and her parents with congratulations, cakes and toys.
Only eleven years previously, the seventh billion mark had been passed. And in the second half of this century, the human population would reach ten billion, according to forecasts. This is expected to happen around 2065, according to a recent report by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Laxenburg, Austria. The independent and internationally funded institute was founded in 1972 to create future scenarios for politicians worldwide.
The institute’s forecast for population development extends to 2100 – and comes to a figure that is not above, but just below, the figure for 2065. It will go downhill: while the human population is estimated to grow by around 350 million between 2020 and 2025, it will already shrink by almost 100 million between 2095 and 2100 – and the decline is accelerating rapidly.
But weren’t we threatened by overpopulation? Wasn’t there talk of 14 or even 16 billion people and a huge overtaxing of natural resources? What is actually ahead of us looks different. But by no means friendlier.