The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) now estimates a 60% chance of El Niño developing by the end of July and an 80% chance by the end of September. “‘The terrible child of the Pacific’ could cause global temperatures to rise to new heat records”, warned this emanation of the UN this Wednesday, May 3.
The natural weather phenomenon, which occurs on average every two to seven years and typically lasts nine to 12 months, is associated with warming ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. . It most often results in increased temperatures, increased drought in some parts of the world and heavy rains in others.
The last episode occurred in 2018-2019 and gave way to a particularly long episode of La Niña, its cooling counterpart, which causes temperatures to drop. The past eight years, however, have been the hottest on record. La Nina “acted as a temporary brake on global temperature rise”WMO chief Petteri Taalas said in a statement. “The development of El Niño will most likely lead to a new peak in global warming and increase the chances of breaking temperature records”he continues.
“The world must prepare”
It is currently impossible to predict the intensity or duration of the looming El Niño. If the latest was considered weak, that of 2014-2016 had disastrous consequences. According to the WMO, 2016 was “the warmest year on record due to the ‘double effect’ of a very strong El Niño and warming caused by human-induced greenhouse gases”.
The effects of El Niño on temperatures are generally felt the year following the emergence of the weather phenomenon. The impact of the one to come will therefore probably be felt more in 2024, underlines the WMO. “The world must prepare for the development of El Niño”warned the head of the organization, adding that he “could provide respite from the Horn of Africa drought and other La Niña-related impacts, but could also trigger more extreme weather and climate events”. Petteri Taalas insisted on the need to set up early warning systems – one of WMO’s priorities – to protect the most threatened populations.
El Niño generally causes increased precipitation in parts of southern South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa and central Asia, and severe droughts in Australia, Indonesia and parts of South Asia. According to the WMO, during the boreal summer – the hot season in the northern hemisphere and cold in the southern hemisphere – the warming of surface waters caused by the event can also fuel hurricanes in the center and eastern Pacific Ocean, while preventing the formation of hurricanes in the Atlantic basin.