The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has called the idea of a complete transition to clean energy and a move away from fossil fuels a “fantasy”, noting that demand for oil would continue to rise until 2050.
In its annual report on the outlook for global oil demand for 2024, the organization forecasts a 17% increase in oil demand between 2023 and 2050, from 102.2 million barrels per day in 2023 to 120.1 million in 2050. In addition, it revised upwards its forecast for 2045, estimating it at 118.9 million compared to 116 million in a previous report.
A fantasy far from reality
For OPEC, these figures highlight that “the fantasy of a gradual exit from oil and gas is not in line with reality”, marking a critical position with regard to the current pace of the energy transition. The organization, led by Saudi Arabia, is thus out of step with international efforts to limit global warming, as well as with the forecasts of other institutions. At the end of 2023, at COP28 in Dubai, the international community agreed to gradually abandon fossil fuels, with the aim of tripling the capacity of renewable energies by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2050.
But OPEC remains skeptical of these targets, saying that only coal demand is likely to decline significantly. In addition to the growth in oil demand, it anticipates a strong increase in natural gas. According to it, the combined demand for wind and solar is expected to increase fivefold between 2023 and 2050, but these energy sources will not be enough to offset the overall increase in fossil fuel consumption.
An increase fueled by several factors
According to the OPEC report, the overall increase in global energy demand will be driven by several factors, including the projected increase in the world population, which will rise from 8 billion to 9.7 billion by 2050. Population growth will be particularly pronounced in non-OECD countries, notably in Africa and Asia.
From a sectoral perspective, oil demand growth will be mainly driven by the petrochemical industry, road transport and aviation. Despite rapid progress in electric vehicles, OPEC remains convinced that combustion engine vehicles “are expected to continue to dominate road transport” over the coming decades.