The amount is deliberately spectacular. Around 60 billion euros: such is the impressive effort that Michel Barnier now plans to make from 2025 to restore public finances. This figure was revealed on Wednesday October 2, during a press briefing organized by Matignon and Bercy. As the new Prime Minister announced the day before during his general policy declaration, this adjustment should be divided between savings measures for a little more than two thirds, and tax increases for the rest. The details of the plan appear in the draft budget transmitted Tuesday evening to the High Council of Public Finances, and which will be revealed in principle on October 10.
This massive amount is, in part, a matter of display. In 2024, the public deficit should reach 6.1% of gross domestic product (GDP), according to new forecasts from the Ministry of the Economy. Reducing this deficit to 5% of GDP in 2025, as Michel Barnier has set the objective, requires an adjustment of 1.1% of GDP, or around 30 billion euros. But the government has chosen to use another calculation basis in its communication. It compares the targeted deficit to that expected in 2025 if nothing was done, i.e. around 7% of GDP. Going from this hypothetical 7% to the 5% retained would require some 60 billion euros.
Presenting such imposing figures allows Michel Barnier to underline the extent of the slippage in the public accounts which he inherits, and to highlight his own determination. The 40 billion euros in savings planned in one year offer in particular an answer to all those on the right who suspect the new government of giving in to ” ease ” tax increases.
No facility, replies the government. There will, of course, be tax increases worth around 20 billion euros. A “fiscal shock” already denounced by some. A surcharge on the profits of groups exceeding 1 billion euros in turnover could bring in 8 billion euros alone. An exceptional contribution will also be requested from individuals “the most fortunate”.
But these temporary efforts remain limited, argues Matignon: “We are very, very far from asking large groups and the wealthiest individuals for an effort of the same order of magnitude as that which was provided by the State to help them” in recent years in the face of the Covid-19 crisis and the inflation crisis. “We will generally not touch the income tax scale for those who work on a daily basis”also declared the Minister of the Economy and Finance, Antoine Armand, Wednesday on RTL.
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