According to experts at the International Energy Agency, the world could triple its green energy capacity by 2030. However, more support is needed for expansion in Africa and Southeast Asia.
According to an analysis by the International Energy Agency (IEA), the goal agreed at the World Climate Conference of tripling the capacity of renewable energies by 2030 is within reach, according to an analysis by the International Energy Agency (IEA). Accordingly, capacity is expected to increase 2.7-fold by 2030 and almost half of global electricity demand will be covered by renewable energies by then.
The climate and energy security policies of numerous countries have made a decisive contribution to ensuring that renewable energies are offered at competitive costs compared to fossil-fired power plants, the IEA said. This is leading to new demand from the private sector and households, while industrial policy measures are encouraging the production of solar panels and wind turbines.
“Cheapest option” for building new power plants
According to the IEA, the trend is being driven by developments in China and the expansion of photovoltaics. By 2030, 60 percent of the expansion of renewable energies will fall on China. Among the major economies, they are currently growing fastest in India.
In terms of technologies, photovoltaics alone are predicted to account for 80 percent of global renewable capacity growth by 2030. This is due to the construction of new large solar power plants and the increasing number of solar systems on the roofs of companies and households. Despite the ongoing challenges, the IEA also sees wind energy facing an upswing: the pace of expansion will double between 2024 and 2030 compared to the period between 2017 and 2023.
“Renewable energies are developing faster than national governments can set targets,” said IEA Director Fatih Birol. “This is not only due to efforts to reduce emissions or increase energy security, but also because renewable energy is now the cheapest option for building new power plants in almost every country in the world.”
More use for thresholds and developing countries necessary
The goal of tripling green electricity capacity set at the UN climate conference in Dubai in December can be achieved if more is done internationally to reduce the high financing costs for new projects in emerging and developing countries. These are currently slowing down the growth of renewable energies in regions with high potential such as Africa and Southeast Asia.
In its report, the IEA also calls on countries to increase the integration of variable renewable energy sources such as photovoltaics and wind power into their electricity systems. Recently, the proportion of unused electricity generation from renewable energies has increased significantly; in several countries it is already around ten percent. To counteract this, countries would have to increase the flexibility of the electricity system, modernize lines and increase storage capacities.
In order to achieve international climate goals, the IEA believes that not only the expansion of renewable energies must be accelerated, but also the introduction of sustainable biofuels, biogases, hydrogen and e-fuels. Since these fuels are still more expensive than their fossil counterparts, their share of global energy supply is expected to remain below six percent in 2030.
The proportion of renewables is also continuing to rise in Germany
In Germany, too, the share of renewable energies in electricity generation has recently increased further: in the first three quarters, electricity, primarily from wind power, sunlight, biomass and hydropower, covered a total of around 56 percent of electricity consumption. This emerges from recent projections by the Center for Solar Energy and Hydrogen Research Baden-Württemberg (ZSW) and the Federal Association of the Energy and Water Industry (BDEW). Last year the nine-month figure was just over 52 percent.
According to the calculations, renewable energies have covered the majority of electricity consumption in every month of this year so far – with shares between 53 and 59 percent. Gross electricity generation from renewables increased by 8.3 percent to 217 billion kilowatt hours.
In this country, too, this was mainly thanks to solar energy: at around 65 billion kilowatt hours, 15 percent more solar power was generated in the first three quarters than in the same period last year. In contrast, gross electricity generation from conventional energy sources coal and natural gas fell by 10.5 percent to 149 billion kilowatt hours.