The EU and Turkey: relations in the freezer


analysis

Status: 05/13/2023 06:00 a.m

Despite lengthy accession negotiations, Turkey currently has no prospect of joining the EU. The hopes that once attached to Erdogan in Brussels have long since evaporated. What went wrong?

To say that Brussels’ relations with Türkiye have cooled would be an understatement. They are in the freezer, deep frozen. For years there hasn’t been a single serious attempt in Brussels to revive the accession negotiations – pointless from the Commission’s point of view as long as Recep Tayyip Erdogan is at the helm of the Turkish power apparatus.

The opinion polls are therefore being followed with interest in Brussels. Something could change, the end of the Erdogan era does not seem impossible. But for that to happen, there must first be fair elections, and the Berlaymont seems to be concerned about that. “We expect Turkey to abide by the democratic rules of the game,” said Commission spokesman Peter Stano as a precautionary measure this week and, with a view to Ankara, explained what that means: fair treatment of all parties and candidates plus free reporting by the media.

The tip sat. According to EU media representatives, there are more journalists in prison in Turkey than in the editorial offices, and it is not certain whether this is meant ironically. Turkey experts estimate that 90 percent of the media is under Erdogan’s control or is very close to his government.

Kemal Kilicdaroglu could become Turkey’s next president.
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The most important election of the year for the EU

For the EU, the most important election this year will not take place in the EU, but in Turkey. The way forward in the country, which has the second largest army in NATO and which plays a key geopolitical role at the interface between Europe and the Arab world, is of crucial importance for the EU.

Turkey is a powerful player in almost all crises and conflicts that are currently weighing on Europeans. In Syria, where Erdogan had his troops invaded in violation of international law. In Libya, where he is fueling the civil war with arms deliveries. In the refugee crisis, the EU is dependent on Ankara’s support. During the Ukraine war, it watched in amazement at how Erdogan, thanks to his cronies with Putin, was able to become a successful mediator in the grain conflict. And in NATO, the strong man from Ankara has been able to block Sweden’s admission for months. Against the will of almost all partners in the alliance.

Turkey’s President Erdogan has reacted to the burning of the Koran in Stockholm.
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Deselecting Erdogan would not mean the end of all problems

Will that change if not Erdogan but opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu wins on Sunday? Yes and no is the answer from political scientists. The head of the Mercator Foundation’s Istanbul office, Jannes Tessmann, points out that the EU can by no means assume that Erdogan’s election will end all problems.

But Turkey will take a few steps towards the EU in the event of a change of government. For example, Tessmann expects Sweden’s NATO membership to be approved. The release of political prisoners like cultural patron Osman Kavala is also likely. “These would be obvious first steps with a tremendous impact.”

The way of communicating with Europeans will certainly change. “Nazi comparisons and fantasies of rockets on Athens,” said the political scientist in Istanbul, would then be a thing of the past. “I wouldn’t expect that from Kilicdaroglu.”

In Turkey, many women see themselves in a difficult environment between religion and patriarchy.
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refugee agreement on the brink

When it comes to other controversial issues, however, the Europeans cannot automatically hope for relaxation when there is a change of government in Turkey. On the contrary. Kemal Kilicdaroglu questions the laboriously negotiated refugee agreement with the EU and knows that the majority of Turkish voters are behind him.

During the election campaign, he promised to send all Syrian refugees back to their homeland within two years. That will probably be the “biggest stress test in Turkish-European relations,” predicts Jannes Tessmann. He also sees continuity rather than a departure from Erdogan’s course in Turkey’s Syria policy and in the dispute over Cyprus.

According to recent polls, the opposition alliance’s candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu has good chances.
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Long way to the EU

Is Turkey part of Europe, can it become a member of the Union? Countless EU summits have fallen out over the issue. Turkey was on a realistic path to the EU, and as a state it is even the oldest candidate country, since 1999. But no other candidate country is as far from being accepted into the club as Turkey today. Opposition candidate Kilisdaroglu has now announced that he will meet the democratic standards of the EU, even without any preconditions.

That sounded similarly gratifying for Brussels 20 years ago with Erdogan. The man was seen as a beacon of hope. The Europeans saw him as the first Muslim democrat, Joschka Fischer praised the possible bridging function to the Arab world. It was French presidents who openly said what not a few other heads of state and government only thought. Turkey does not belong geographically, historically or culturally to Europe, according to Nicolas Sarkozy, who had just been elected President in 2007. One of his predecessors, Giscard d’Estaing, had made a similar statement.

A little later, the clear words from the Elysée Palace also encouraged Angela Merkel to come out of cover. “We don’t see full membership,” she said in the 2009 European election campaign, “we don’t want that.” Instead, she proposed a “privileged partnership” with Turkey. But the reform steps that Erdogan was ready to take were not even sufficient for this. In the accession negotiations, only one of the 33 necessary chapters was closed. It remains unclear whether Erdogan ever seriously wanted to pursue the accession process.

Criticism of the EU’s Turkey policy

The Europeans have not put enough pressure on Erdogan – this is the view of the well-known Turkish journalist Bülent Mumay. “This hypocritical attitude of Europe during Erdogan’s rule has deeply disappointed the democrats in Turkey.” Mumay has just been sentenced to 20 months’ suspended imprisonment in Turkey, and the court’s verdict reads like a flimsy pretext. Bülent Mumay also reports from Istanbul for German media, including Deutsche Welle and FAZ. He paid for his independent and critical articles with several arrests.

What does he want from the European Union when there is a political change on election Sunday? “In the new era, Europe needs to establish a very clear and open relationship with Turkey,” Mumay wrote when asked tagesschau.de. Europe must stop “closing its eyes to anti-democratic developments in Turkey” because of its own interests. So that the democrats in Turkey are not disappointed by the Europeans again.

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