A page turns for Brazil. On Sunday evening, former president and candidate Lula defeated outgoing president Jair Bolsonaro at the polls. With 50.9% of the vote, against 49.1% for his far-right opponent, the next Brazilian head of state opens a new era. That of a president “who will respect the institutions, the rule of law, who will not call for violence or racist, homophobic or deforestation statements,” said Juliette Dumont, lecturer in contemporary history. at the Institute for Advanced Studies in Latin America and researcher at the Center for Research and Documentation on the Americas (Creda), interviewed by 20 minutes. Brasilia is emerging from four dark years, but in which direction? What will this accession to power change for Brazil, but also for Latin America?
What will the arrival of Lula in power change for Brazil?
This change of head of state is synonymous with a “necessary first step” to save the Brazilian institutions, believes Juliette Dumont, “but not sufficient”. He is a “president who will speak to all the inhabitants, not just his supporters, someone who can bring about a reconsolidation of democratic institutions and not hate speech”, she insists. Lula indeed promised, during his victory speech, to “govern 215 million Brazilians, and not only those who voted for [lui]. There are not two Brazils, we are one people, one nation”. He also insisted on the importance of the “unity” of his country. However, if this mandate “is not followed on the rule of law, the tax system, the institutions, it is a safe bet that Bolsonaro could again triumph in four years”, warns the researcher at Creda.
Lula also pleaded for “an egalitarian Brazil, a Brazil for all, whose priority is given to those who need it most”. He also puts social action back at the heart of his commitment and promises to “eradicate hunger again” while 33 million Brazilians are food insecure. He also wants to emphasize the construction of social housing, give back to education, health, real means. The climate will also be one of his priorities: “Brazil is ready to resume its leadership in the fight against the climate crisis (…) Brazil and the planet need a living Amazon,” he said.
“But where is he going to find the money? », worries Juliette Dumont. What means of action will the next left-wing president be able to find to apply his ambitions? The budgetary question is indeed complicated after four years of Bolsonarism whose neo-liberal policy has brought in less revenue. The distribution of an aid of 600 reis, or approximately 150 euros, per inhabitant has also cost the Brazilian state dearly. Besides the empty coffers, Lula won thanks to a coalition of ten political parties, including center-right policies that will not necessarily go in his direction on all these social issues. Especially “as he does not have the majority in the congress, far from it”, underlines Juliette Dumont.
A return of Brazil on the international scene?
Lula’s return is undeniably welcomed on the international scene. From Washington to Moscow, via Paris or Brussels, many countries applauded this victory. In a tweet, French President Emmanuel Macron warmly welcomed Lula’s victory, wishing to “renew the bond of friendship” between Paris and Brasilia. Brazil will thus regain its diplomatic stature which it had lost during the Bolosnaro years. “Today we tell the world that Brazil is back, it is too big to be relegated to this sad role of pariah in the world,” boasted Lula. “Since the 20th century, Brazil has always had a powerful diplomacy and foreign policy, so this return is good news, particularly in the current context where multilateralism must be strengthened,” says Juliette Dumont.
Climate action will also be a strong gesture to restore the image of Brazil. Norway has already announced that it will resume its massive financial aid to protect the Amazon from deforestation. “Regarding Lula, we note that during the campaign he emphasized the preservation of the Amazon rainforest and the protection of the indigenous populations of the Amazon,” Norwegian Environment Minister Espen Barth Eide told the AFP. Indeed, Lula “it can only be better, says Juliette Dumont. But he is not the most advanced environmentalist either, if his previous mandates have been marked by a drop in deforestation, there is a lot to complain about the workers’ party, especially concerning indigenous lands”, nuance- she.
More broadly, all of Latin America will be drawn into this dynamic. “Brazil is an important player in the Brics [Brésil, Russie, Inde, Chine et Afrique du Sud] and the Global South, it is a driving force for Latin American countries,” she recalls. Lula has always been ready to sign trade agreements with the United States, European countries, “democracies”, summarizes Juliette Dumont, “but not unfavorable to Brazil or the environment”, she adds.
Will Jair Bolsonaro accept his defeat?
Jair Bolsonaro has not yet reacted to his defeat. No comment from the beaten president who will have to return the keys to the Palace of Dawn on January 1st. The country will wait two months for the transition between the two heads of state, and it could be complicated. “We do not expect much cooperation between the two administrations”, warns Juliette Dumont. However, it seems difficult for the outgoing president not to accept this electoral setback. Many elected officials close to his politics and allies recognized Lula’s victory.
But supporters are much less inclined to play the game. If 49.1% of voters slipped a Jair Bolsonaro ballot into the ballot box, they are actually 30% to be part of the militant base. But they are no less determined. “There are already groups on the social networks where Internet users are crying out for electoral fraud, truckers have blocked the roads in the south…”, lists Juliette Dumont. To see how Jair Bolsonaro decided to react. Will he accept his defeat or add fuel to the fire like Donald Trump did, or even witness a scenario of violence like the assault on the Capitol in Washington? The researcher at Creda does not want to risk predicting such a scenario “it’s moving all the time”, she explains, but “there will be violence and there is already”. Especially since the Brazilians are four times more armed than four years ago.